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Central Asian Economic Review

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No 4 (2018)
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THEORY AND METHODOLOGY OF ECONOMIC SCIENCE

10-16 280
Abstract

Purpose – to form of model of discrete linear, quadratic and general programming of economic factors that effectively take into account the mutual influence of elements of a dynamic series that affect the increase of competitiveness of small agricultural formations.
Methodology – probabilistic statistical analysis, economic-statistical research method.
Originality/value – the proposed model effectively takes into account the mutual influence of the elements of the dynamic series that influence the increase of competitiveness of small agricultural formations, that is, the influence of various economic parameters on each other when they simultaneously manifest themselves. In this case, the forecasting operator is actually trained on the statistical material of the past.
Findings – the proposed model takes into account the mutual influence of the change in all quantitative indicators in the reporting period on the result of each parameter in the prospective period to the greatest extent. Therefore, this model can be directly applied as separate small agricultural formations (peasant (farm) farms, since they occupy the main part of all formations) to increase the competitiveness of domestic agrarian production, and to predict macroeconomic indicators of ensuring and increasing the competitiveness of agricultural enterprises in the conditions of sustainable development of the agroindustrialcomplex. The universality of the model makes it easy to further modify it for use in solving a wide range of economic, production, marketing and financial problems wherever an effective forecast allows to rationalize management decisions and obtain results in the future. Taking into account the fact that in modern agrarian economy in ensuring the country's food security and increasing the competitiveness of agricultural enterprises, the forecast is widely used, it is difficult to estimate the expected social and economic effect.

17-25 379
Abstract

Purpose of research – the purpose of the work is to describe the features of the DEA method and its possible use for the analysis of real data of enterprises under the "cost-output" scheme and improve their efficiency.
Methodology it is based on the use of linear programming algorithms. The peculiarity lies in the creation of a separate model for each enterprise and definitions of effective enterprises.
Originality – it consists in the identification of efficient and inefficient enterprises on the basis of specific data describing the cost of resources and output. At the same time, reference enterprises are identified among those that are effective for lagging enterprises in order to determine the degree of cost reduction to achieve efficiency.
Summary – they describe the essence of the DEA-method which is based on the principles of linear programming. The article considers the data of enterprises working in the construction sector of Kazakhstan and determines their effectiveness. 4 enterprises the data of which was analyzed three companies were effective and one was ineffective. Determined the reference of the company values which are a guideline of the necessary cost reductions. The indicators that will allow to become an effective enterprise are calculated.

FINANCE AND ANALYSIS

26-35 292
Abstract

Purpose – The main purpose of this paper is to reveal core factors influencing the exchange rate of the national currency in Kazakhstan, a commodity currency, using R program. The other purpose is to understand the applicability of an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for constructing such exchange rate model in a short-term period.
Methodology – The paper develops a forecasting ARIMA model of exchange rate based on econometric, statistical and time-series analysis. It includes some data of the exchange rate and prices of oil, mineral and agricultural products and some aspects reflecting a construction of a solid model according to conventionally accepted criteria.
Originality/value – Authors, according to their belief and to their extent of expertise, tried to consider all relevant factors influencing the exchange rate and conducted a research that revealed variables influencing on the value of the national commodity currency and forming its exchange rate.
Findings – One of important results of this paper was development of an ARIMA model, which could be applied to forecast the exchange rate of the local currency in a short-term period. The strong correlations were confirmed among such financial components as: exchange rate, oil, wheat, some metals and the Russian ruble. A forecast for the exchange rate of the local currency is provided.

36-45 349
Abstract

Purpose – the review of modern methodologies of assessment of country risk and their application to the national stock market. On a basis: the review of modern methodologies of assessment of country risk of the international rating agencies, identification and a research of positions of concrete potentially interested parties (JSC Kazakhstan Stock Exchange, the broker, consulting companies, investors and so forth) to reveal some determinants of increase in rating of the stock market
Methodology – studying of scientific literature, questioning, observation, interviewing, classification and groups and so forth. On the basis of methodical approach to creation of rating assessment of country risk will be applied combination of all above-mentioned methods taking into account their advantages, shortcomings and alternatives.
Originality / value – to define the contours of the national stock market promoting the economic growth of the country and influencing on country risk.
Findings – on the basis of the analysis and identification of key problems of development of the national stock market some approaches when determining his qualitative characteristics are developed that will positively affect at quantitative estimations of cost of the domestic companies and also some measures for increase in rating of the Kazakhstan stock market are proposed. All financial institutions of RK, investors and the Kazakhstan companies joint-stock companies, medium business and so forth are interested in results of a research already now.

46-56 537
Abstract

Purpose – to test the impact of capital structure changes on value of the company and how different factors may influence, directly or inversely, the debt and equity components of capital structure and to test the validity of the trade-off and pecking order theories of capital structure for Oil and Gas sector industry in Kazakhstan.
Methodology – synthesis, statistic and correlation-regression analysis of data.
Originality/value – optimization of capital structure allows to find the place in the competitive market. One of the conditions for creating a financial stability is to create an optimal capital structure. Therefore, the volume of effective management of the company, making the right decision about the amount of the loan.
Findings – in Kazakhstan, Oil and Gas sector companies make new investment and capital structure decisions according to Pecking Order Theory.

56-71 378
Abstract

Purpose of research – The analysis of the banking system of analytical control of the second level in the financial markets, identifying key issues and their use of risk management strategies. The basic aim of the bank is to analyze and control the model, as well as the model value.
Methodology – The article analyzes the correct application of the banking system of risk management, identifies key problems of risk management. Recommendations on effective use of the proposed methods and recommendations for the improvement of these systems are presented, and the financial situation of banks is analyzed by the model. The Banks are offered an effective structure of risk management, and as an example of its implementation it is recommended to use modern risk management models in the bank.
Original/Value – Nowadays, the banking sector of Kazakhstan is one of the most important sectors of the economy. It is necessary to take into account the priority areas of modernization of the banking system, now risk management is topical. The pace of the country's economic development, social and economic development and welfare depends on the level of development of the banking sector. In order to increase the competitiveness of Kazakhstan’s banks in the international arena, it is necessary to ensure the sustainable development of the banking sector.
Findings – a brief description of modern methods of banking risk management systems and their practical importance.
Conclusion – Currently, financial institutions seek to improve the risk management process. Banking risks are socially and economically responsible processes that explain the importance of informing banks about the need for independent management of risk management systems. Despite of the continuing economic instability, as well as the negative impact of the environment, the task of improving the risk management process is to ensure the sustainability of development. The implementation of these tasks is only the introduction of a modern model of risk management system, which is individually developed, depending on the internal policies and strategies of each bank.

72-83 2148
Abstract

Purpose – the paper aims to consider the specifics of auditing financial statements in the republic sector. To analyze foreign experience and determine the possibilities for using it in the implementation of a new function of the state audit – the audit of consolidated financial statements of the republic budget.
Methodology – in the process of research, have been general scientific and special research methods, including system analysis and synthesis, theoretical generalization, scientific abstraction.
Originality/value – based on the results of the study, the author's formulation of the audit of financial statements in the public sector was proposed, considering its specifics. Based on the study of the foreign experience in auditing the consolidated financial statements of the republican budget, it is revealed that the structure of compiling consolidated financial statements of the republican budget of the Republic of Kazakhstan is closest to the practice of the UK and proposals is given for methodological provision and rational organization of state audit.
Conclusions – total adoption of the audit of the consolidated financial statements of the republic budget practical procedures of any country to the Kazakhstan’s system is unacceptable, since there are differences in the organizational structure of the state audit bodies, the economic and political development direction. At the same time, the application of US experience in increasing the composition of forms in the consolidated financial statements of the country, and the organization of internal control over the preparation of consolidated accounts of the republic budget will help to increase the degree of confidence in the reporting.

BUSINESS AND CORPORATE MANAGEMENT

84-93 760
Abstract

Purpose – the study the systems and methods of calculating the cost of services in the hospitality industry. Suggest ways to improve when calculating the cost price. Analyze the current status of LLP «Altyn» and apply various methods to determine the cost of services. Suggest ways to improve when calculating the cost price of a hotel complex.
Methodology – this study was carried out using the example of the hotel complex LLP «Altyn». Two methods were used in calculating the cost of business The first method is to determine the cost price by categories of hotel rooms. The second method is the determination of the occupancy of rooms. Both of these methods helped to assess the situation objectively.
Originality / value – The originality of the research lies in the fact that recommendations have been developed on the distribution of costs when calculating the cost of hotel rooms by room category. Also, in order to obtain the actual cost price, it is necessary to adjust the received prime cost by the percentage of the average occupancy of hotels in a certain period, which reveals the real cost price of hotel rooms.
Findings – Based on the results of theoretical and practical studies, theoretical provisions were clarified and practical recommendations were made to improve the calculation of the cost of hotel rooms. The main recommendations presented in the article are presented in the form of proposals to the owners of LLP «Altyn» and they plan to use them in the near future.

94-102 290
Abstract

Purpose – to study the existing approaches to assessing the innovative potential of small businesses Methodology – the method of marketing analysis, the graphic method, as well as general scientific methods are used: synthesis, analysis, comparison, generalization.
Originality/value – based on theoretical approaches to the evaluation of innovative potential, the collection of necessary statistical data for its implementation and the evolutionary theory of factors of production, the authors identified the main groups of factors affecting the innovative potential of small business entities in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Empirical analysis using the PSPP package has allowed to develop a model for assessing the innovative potential of small enterprises. The results of the research can be used in making rational decisions that will effectively manage the innovative activity of the enterprise.
Conclusions - the author developed a model for assessing the impact of factors on the innovative potential of small businesses, which allows integrating the results of innovation activities of enterprises and existing conditions for its development both at the macro level and at the sectoral level.

GLOBALISATION AND KAZAKHSTAN

103-111 379
Abstract

Purpose – This paper is devoted to disclosing urgent macroeconomic trade issues taking into consideration the case of China and the United States of America.
Methodology – The primary research methodology of this paper is based on conducting the comparative analysis of existing patterns of macroeconomic development, political differences and social issues within China and the U.S. The given analysis is based on PEST, SWOT, Risk identification techniques as well as the diamond model by M. Porter detecting competitive advantages for the countries mentioned above. It is also implemented the systematic vision, causes and consequences analysis, and expert assessment.
Originality/Value – Nowadays the U.S.-China trade disputes is the current issue of great global impact and significance. These trade relations support more than two and a half million jobs in the United States in various industries, including jobs created by Chinese companies in America. And the Chinese middle class continues to expand rapidly over the next decade. According to expert estimates, by 2026 the number of Chinese middleclass consumers will exceed the entire population of the United States. This means that the U.S. companies will face serious challenges to attract a new and profitable customer base, which can further increase employment and economic growth. Thus, this paper presents the most contemporary analytical review of this current economic situation based on the latest data of 2017-2018.
Findings – In the given research it has been studied the current issue of the U.S. and China economic trade relations. It has been analyzed the current economic, social and political aspects of trade relations between the United States and China. It has been detected their advantages and disadvantages for both countries based on methodologies and analytical tools described above. It has been considered the possible solutions and recommendations on how to improve the current macroeconomic relations between given countries.

112-126 397
Abstract

Purpose – discuss the different applications of higher education financing systems and analyze the contribution of different actors participating in higher education financing.
Methodology – in this work the authors used the following scientific methods of research: analysis, synthesis, comparison, generalization.
Originality/value – The first part of this study focuses on the theoretical framework of higher education services, and the second part provides a comparison of the shares of the actors who contribute to higher education financing in the countries in question. Thus, a comparative analysis of higher education system among countries is conducted.
Findings – this study reveals the fact that the participants in higher education financing in every country are different from each other and that some countries have distinct finance systems in higher education. While the participation of private sector in the USA, the United Kingdom and Korea is more important than public sector’s participation, public sector is more dominant in most European countries. Most countries spend more than an average of 1.5% of GDP on higher education financing, this rate exceeds 2.3% of GDP in some countries such as Canada, Korea and the USA but some other countries such as Belgium, Italy and the Germany allocate less than 1.5% of GDP. Most OECD members support higher education and its actors by using public funds which is more or less 22% of their public budgets.

127-138 423
Abstract

Purpose – to discuss the issues that emerge from the use of quantitative indicators for measuring research productivity of faculty and to identify the challenges that inhibit the integration of Kazakhstani scholars into the global scientific community.
Methodology – the research is based on the case studies of Kazakhstani universities. Data collection for this study was done through document analysis, individual semi-structured interviews and focus group interviews.
Originality/value – the article explores the economic aspects of publication regime as the consequence of neoliberal policy and quantitatively oriented assessment of research productivity based on the case of Kazakhstan. The authors draw attention to a number of structural problems that were seemingly formed as a result of the aforementioned policy. The characteristics of these structural problems appear to point to the existence of opportunities and challenges in relation to the integration of Kazakhstani scholars into the global scientific community.
Findings – the analysis of the findings have led to a number of practical recommendations for particular governmental organizations, university managers and scholars. For instance, on national level the government is encouraged to increase the funding of research and the effective mechanisms of its distribution. On institutional level the universities are invited to divide faculty workload into teaching and research categories and reconsider the issue of remuneration. Finally, the article appeals to the research community to improve ethical considerations and values related to conducting and disseminating research.

THE ECONOMY OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

139-149 312
Abstract

The purpose of the study – to identify the main factors influencing the demographic potential of the regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan, their evaluation and analysis and the reflection of the contribution of individual regions to the reproduction of the population as a whole.
Research methodology – During the writing of the article the research was based on methods of analysis, observation, quantitative analysis and comparison of statistical data of factors influencing the demographic potential of the regions of the Republic of Kazakhstan.
Originality / value of work – The author grouped and analyzed the factors influencing the demographic potential of the regions of Kazakhstan in recent years. When studying the factors, regions with high, stable and low demographic potential were identified.
Findings as a result of the research it was proved that the annual steady growth of the population in Kazakhstan is connected with the high demographic potential of some regions only, namely South Kazakhstan, Mangystau, Aktobe, Zhambyl, Atyrau and Almaty regions (oblasts). On the contrary, a low demographic potential has been identified in the North-Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Karaganda and Pavlodar regions (oblasts). In general, the slow process of constant population growth in the country is connected with this situation. As a result of the analysis, the regions associated with the demographic potential were grouped.

150-160 395
Abstract

Purpose of the study is to answer the following research questions: (1) what knowledge about the processes and the status of a particular economy gives the fact of the presence (absence) of dependence between the indicators of FDI inflow and the dynamics of GDP? (2) If there is a positive correlation between FDI inflow and GDP growth, is this a positive development for the economy of a particular country, especially for its real sector? And if so, how to measure and check it in the case of Kazakhstan? (A similar question can also be formulated regarding negative correlation.)
Research methods – General scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, statistical and graphical methods, regression and correlation analysis have been applied.
Novelty / value – Kazakhstan's economy has been experiencing a significant FDI inflow for more than a decade, but the real results (effects) of this process have not been sufficiently studied. The author considers the effects of FDI inflow into the economy of Kazakhstan in terms of their impact not only on GDP dynamics, but also attempts to understand what other indicators to be investigated to create a realistic picture of the role of FDI in the economy and, first of all, in its real sector.
Conclusions – As a result of the study the author derives the following assumptions: (1) In the case of Kazakhstan the hypothesis of a positive correlation between FDI inflow and economic growth is not confirmed; (2) GDP itself is not informative in the case of the small commodity production - concentrated economy of Kazakhstan, where a high volume of FDI inflow is accompanied by high volumes of foreign investor`s income withdrawal. More adequate for the analysis in this case is GNI, which is equal to GDP minus net factor income (NFI), that includes income from FDI; (3) Methodological approaches based on the analysis of GDP dynamics may are considered not relevant for the study of the impact of FDI to the economy of Kazakhstan; (4) After 15 years of FDI inflow the main effect to the real sector of the economy of Kazakhstan is the growth of crude oil production, which is confirmed by the results of correlation and regression analysis.

INNOVATIVE ECONOMY

161-171 2610
Abstract

The goal of research – consists in review the accumulated material on the structure and trends of the IT market development, analysis of the current information and communication technology market conditions of the Republic of Kazakhstan, IT-market segment deep analysis providing, market structure determination, IT-market development dynamics recognition and providing the prognoses of the main Kazakhstan IT-market development trends.
Methodology – consists in the fact that the study is classified as the desk study, the secondary data collection and processing was carried out, particularly, the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan Committee on Statistics, Committee on Statistics Statistical Bulletin data and Report on the Information and Communication Technology Field in the Republic of Kazakhstan prepared by Zerde National Info Communication Holding JSC and KPMG Tax and Advisory LLP was used for the factor analysis. As a part of the study, the authorized persons interviews and public speaking as published in the media and a number of foreign works from international databases were analyzed.
Originality/value – under the actual Kazakhstan course to the economics digitalization, the author has analyzed the economics commanding height – IT-field. The author has processed the statistical data on the field development, found out the market development dynamics, determined the causes and effects of the development trends as found. To more deep understanding of the problem, the author has carried out the nuanced analysis of the market structure. The paper also comprises the data on the objectives of the Government program «Digital Kazakhstan», directly relating to the study subject as considered – IT-field.
Conclusions – the study results have shown that the Kazakhstan Republic IT-market after some growth reduction, related to the general business situation in the country and national currency devaluate, in 2017 has shown the trend to recovery of the market conditions. In 2017, the government specially focuses on the ITfield development, technological breakthrough and IT development of the innovative ecosystem in the country, this is proved by both acceptation of «Digital Kazakhstan» program and some other events under the country digitalization. According to the study results, it is expected new thrusts development in the IT-field, among them the cloud services, service model, big data work (Big Data).

172-182 835
Abstract

The purpose of the research – to summarize the international experience on the example of the CIS countries that are members of the Eurasian Group on Combating Money Laundering and Financing of Terrorism on identification of national politically exposed persons (PEPs) among clients of financial institutions in the performance of financial transactions by the latter, and to develop proposals for the possible implementation of one of the models in Kazakhstan practice in order to minimize the risks of money laundering by national PEPs.
Methodology – in the course of this study the method of qualitative analysis - expert interview was used. Interviews with representatives of commercial banks of Astana took place in their personal presence, the interview with respondents from Almaty was held online.
Originality / value – the author gives her own definition of the national public official. Based on the research of international scientists, and the results of the interview, the tools for possible use in the process of activity of second-tier banks in order to implement certain legislative norms in the field of combating legalization (laundering) of proceeds of crime and financing of terrorism in Kazakhstan were proposed.
Conclusions – the results of the research indicate that in Kazakhstan the financial institutions comply with the norms of International standards for the customer due diligence and the identification of national PEPs among them de facto, however, de jure at the legislative level, there are no such requirements. Thus, the inclusion in the basic law of the concept of "national public official" and the use of one of the proposed tools will allow financial institutions to implement the policy of “transparency and reliability” of the client more effectively.



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ISSN 2789-4398 (Print)
ISSN 2789-4401 (Online)