Inclusive education in Kazakhstan: analysis of the organizing process and the possibility of its further development

The purpose of the study is to analyze the process of organization and the possibility of using inclusive education in Kazakhstan on the basis of the identified forecast values.

The methodological basis of the study is a system of various techniques that make up a set of methods, mechanisms, principles, and measures to improve the effectiveness of the use of tools for improving inclusive education, which are a necessary condition for the further development of the education system.

Research methods. The following methods were used in the study:

- theoretical, which include: theoretical analysis of the research of domestic and foreign scientists in the field of inclusive education; analysis of legislative and regulatory documents on the implementation of inclusive education and education in general;

- methods of high-quality data processing;

- methods of mathematical and statistical processing.

Methods of mathematical modeling and forecasting were used in the processing and systematization of data. A trend model was constructed using the least squares method, which allowed us to prove the hypothesis that the indicator "Total number of children with special educational needs covered by inclusive education" contains a linear trend and to make a forecast for 2021-2023.

The conclusions and results of the study were presented using a graphical method of presenting the results obtained.

The methods used for the study of economic phenomena and the processing of primary information in their entirety allow us to ensure the reliability of the analysis and the validity of the conclusions.

The originality / value of the research. The study is based on the hypothesis that the indicator "Total number of children with special educational needs covered by inclusive education" contains a linear development trend, and if this is proved by the author in the course of the study, it will be possible to make a forecast for 2021-2023.

Findings. The author determined the forecast values of the indicator "The total number of children with special educational needs covered by inclusive education" for 2021-2023, as a result of which:

1) according to the Irwin criterion, it was found that the original time series does not contain anomalous observations;

2) using the criterion of "ascending" and "descending" series, it was determined that the time series under consideration contains a trend component;

3) as a result of data approximation, a trend model was obtained;

4) the quality of the resulting model was evaluated in two ways: checking the adequacy and evaluating the accuracy of the model.

5) predicted values of the share of educational organizations (the share of state preschool organizations, the share of state general education schools, the share of state technical and vocational education (TVE) organizations) that have created conditions for inclusive education for 2021-2023 have been determined.

As a result of the study, the author analyzed the trends in the development of inclusive education in Kazakhstan, which showed that the promotion and development of access to inclusive education, social integration and non – discriminatory treatment of persons with special educational needs is relevant. In this regard, there is an urgent need to review the concept of inclusive education at the national level and conduct empirical research on the integration of children from vulnerable groups into the general education system of Kazakhstan in order to fully cover children with special educational needs with inclusive education.

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