Analysis of the current state and forecasts of the development of the residential real estate market of the Republic of Kazakhstan
https://doi.org/10.52821/2789-4401-2024-2-59-76
Abstract
Purpose of the study – describe the state of the Kazakhstan residential real estate market, identify the features and trends of its development.
The authors of the study pay special attention to the analysis of the main indicators characterizing the residential real estate market, as well as the processes taking place in the mortgage lending market.
Methodology – the study was conducted using methods of economic and statistical analysis, graphic method, method of description and generalization. The research sources were offi cial statistical materials of the National Bank of Kazakhstan, analytical reviews of consulting companies and fi nancial organizations, the «Krisha.kz» real estate platform and the «Kn.kz» real estate information portal, scientifi c research by Kazakh and foreign authors, as well as materials of scientifi c and practical conferences.
Originality / value of the study – the authors carried out a detailed analysis of the state and problems of the residential real estate market of the Republic of Kazakhstan in recent years and gave forecasts for its future development.
Findings. According to the results of research and analysis of the current state of the Kazakh residential real estate market in recent years, the authors identifi ed problems and identifi ed current trends in the development of the housing market, as well as forecasts of its future development. The results of the scientifi c article can be useful for real estate agencies, industry experts, as well as the scientifi c community involved in studying the real estate market.
About the Authors
M. R. SikhimbayevKazakhstan
Karaganda
G. N. Srailova
Kazakhstan
Karaganda
A. A. Flek
Kazakhstan
Karaganda
References
1. Chernyshevskaya, I. (2022). Property market of Kazakhstan: Limited space and expansion problems. Central Asian Bureau for Analytical Reporting. Retrieved February 10, 2024, from https://cabar.asia/en/property-market-of-kazakhstan-limited-space-and-expansion-problems.
2. Shalbolova, U. Zh., Mukaev, D. T., & Aidargalieva, N. G. (2023). Dostupnost' zhil'ya na mirovykh rynkakh nedvizhimosti. Ekonomicheskaya seriya Vestnika ENU imeni L. N. Gumileva, 1, 46-58. doi: 10.32523/2789-4320-2023-1-46-58 (In Russian).
3. Prices by country of price per square meter to buy apartment in city center. (2024). "Numbeo". Retrieved March 24, 2024, from https://www.numbeo.com/cost-of-living/prices_by_country.jsp?displayCurrency=USD&itemId=100.
4. Agnello, L., Castro, V., & Sousa, R. M. (2020). The housing cycle: What role for mortgage market development and housing fi nance? The Journal of Real Estate Finance & Economics, 61(3), 607-670. doi: 10.1007/s11146-019-09705-z.
5. Agnello, L., Castro, V., & Sousa, R. M. (2015). Booms, busts and normal times in the housing market. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 33(1), 25-45. doi: 10.1080/07350015.2014.918545
6. Agnello, L., Castro, V., & Sousa, R. M. (2018). Economic activity, credit market conditions, and the housing market. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 22(7), 1769-1789. doi: 10.1017/S1365100516000869.
7. Ybrayev, Zh., & Becker, C. (2019). Real estate market evolution and monetary policy in Kazakhstan. University of Central Asia – Institute of Public Policy and Administration (IPPA). Working Paper, 54, 38. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.3409328.
8. Denissova, O. K., Kabdulsharipova, A. M., & Samussenko, Y. A. (2023). Statistical assessment of the development prospects of the primary residential real estate market in Kazakhstan. Bulletin of the Karaganda University. "Economy" Series, 1(109), 43-50. doi: 10.31489/2023Ec1/43-50.
9. Mukaev, D. T. (2021). Otsenka sostoyaniya rynka nedvizhimosti v Respublike Kazakhstan. In Sbornik trudov mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferentsii "Natsional'nye ekonomicheskie sistemy v kontekste formirovaniya global'nogo ekonomicheskogo prostranstva". Simferopol: IT "Arial", 474-749 (In Russian).
10. Mukaev, D. T. (2020). Spetsificheskie faktory, vliyayushchie na formirovanie rynka nedvizhimosti v Respublike Kazakhstan. In Sbornik trudov mezhdunarodnoy nauchno-prakticheskoy konferentsii "Modernizatsiya ekonomiki: predposylki, sostoyanie, puti razvitiya v usloviyakh global'nykh vyzovov i trendov industrii". Nur-Sultan: L. N. Gumilev ENU, 171-176 (In Russian).
11. Sikhimbaev, M. R., & Shatskaya, A. A. (2016). Praktika ispol'zovaniya metodik prognozirovaniya dinamiki tsen na rynke nedvizhimosti v Kazakhstane. Mezhdunarodnyy zhurnal prikladnykh i fundamental'nykh issledovaniy, 8-2, 240-243 (In Russian).
12. Arshkenova, A. M. (2020). Sovremennoe sostoyanie rynka nedvizhimosti v krupnykh gorodakh Respubliki Kazakhstan. Elektronnyy nauchnyy zhurnal "Vek kachestva", 1, 96-106 (In Russian).
13. Auyezkhanuly, A., Manap, A., & Akpanov, A. (2019). The study of the residential real estate market in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 27(1), 117-133. doi: 10.1080/10835547.2019.12090495.
14. Mukaev, D. T., Shalbolova, U. Zh., & Salykova, A. M. (2023). Sovremennoe sostoyanie zhilishchnogo stroitel'stva i dostupnosti zhil'ya v Kazakhstane. Vestnik universiteta "Turan", 1(97), 279-296. doi: 10.46914/1562-2959-2023-1-1-279-296 (In Russian).
15. Mukaev, D. T., & Shalbolova, U. Zh. (2022). Otsenka dostupnosti zhil'ya v Respublike Kazakhstan. Ekonomicheskaya seriya Vestnika ENU imeni L. N. Gumileva, 4, 172-184. doi: 10.32523/2789-4320-2022-4-172-184 (In Russian).
16. Tazabekov, K. A., Zhamkeeva, M. K., & Konybekov, M. Zh. (2021). Analiz i otsenka dostupnosti zhil'ya v Respublike Kazakhstan. Vestnik universiteta "Turan", 2, 33-42. doi: 10.46914/1562-2959-2021-1-3-33-42 (In Russian).
17. Zakon Respubliki Kazakhstan ot 26 iyulya 2007 goda № 310 "O gosudarstvennoy registratsii prav na nedvizhimoe imushchestvo". IPS "Adilet". Retrieved March 18, 2024, from https://online.zakon.kz/Document/?doc_id=30118294 (In Russian)
18. Zharkov, A. A. (2013). Sub"ektnaya struktura rynka zhiloy nedvizhimosti. Molodoy uchenyy, 10(57), 305-308 (In Russian).
19. Pupentsova, S. V. (2011). Organizatsiya i tekhnologii operatsiy s nedvizhimost'yu : uchebnoe posobie. Sankt-Peterburg: FGAOU VO "Sankt-Peterburgskiy politekhnicheskiy universitet Petra Velikogo". (In Russian).
20. Tetin, L. (2018). Rynok nedvizhimosti v 2018 godu: samye vazhnye sobytiya. "Forbes Kazakhstan". Retrieved March 23, 2024, from https://forbes.kz/process/property/ryinok_nedvijimosti_v_2018_godu_samyie_vajnyie_sobyitiya (In Russian).
21. Natsional'nyy obzor zhilishchnogo khozyaystva RK. (2018). Official website of the United Nations. Retrieved March 18, 2024, from https://unece.org/DAM/hlm/documents/Publications/CP_Kazakhstan_web.RUS.pdf (In Russian).
22. Programma ipotechnogo zhilishchnogo kreditovaniya "7-20-25. Novye vozmozhnosti priobreteniya zhil'ya dlya kazhdoy sem'i" № 107 ot 31 maya 2018 goda. National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan website. Retrieved March 18, 2024, from https://nationalbank.kz/file/download/17428 (In Russian).
23. Apenova, K. (2018). Ipoteka "Baspana Hit": usloviya i raschety. Information portal "kn.kz". Retrieved March 18, 2024, from https://www.kn.kz/article/8428 (In Russian).
24. Povyshenie dostupnosti zhil'ya grazhdanam Kazakhstana (Godovoy otchet AO "Ipotecnaya organizaciya "Kazakhstanskaya Ipotecnaya Kompaniya"). KASE. Retrieved March 18, 2024, from https://kase.kz/files/emitters/KZIK/kzikp_2019_rus.pdf (In Russian)
25. Kurmanbekov, A. (2019). Rynok nedvizhimosti 2019 g. Halyk Finance Research. Retrieved March 19, 2024, from https://halykfinance.kz/analiticheskiy-centr/rynok-nedvizhimosti-2019-g.html?lang=ru (In Russian).
26. Obzor rynka nedvizhimosti Kazakhstana. (2020). Halyk Finance Research. Retrieved March 19, 2024, from https://halykfinance.kz/analiticheskiy-centr/obzor-rynka-nedvizhimosti-kazahstana.html?lang=ru (In Russian).
27. Rynok zhiloy nedvizhimosti v 2020 godu. (2021). Halyk Finance Research. Retrieved March 19, 2024, from https://halykfinance.kz/download/files/analytics/re_2020.pdf (In Russian).
28. Rynok zhiloy nedvizhimosti v 1 polugodii 2021 g. (2021). Halyk Finance Research. Retrieved March 19, 2024, from https://halykfinance.kz/download/files/analytics/re_1h2021.pdf (In Russian).
29. Shablina, M. (2021). Rynok ipoteki v Kazakhstane: analiz i perspektivy razvitiya. Ekonomicheskoe obozrenie Natsional'nogo Banka Respubliki Kazakhstan, 1, 22-28 (In Russian).
30. Izmenenie tsen na rynke i kuplia-prodazha zhil'ya v dekabre 2023 goda. (2023). Bureau of National Statistics "QazStat". Retrieved March 19, 2024, from https://stat.gov.kz/ru/news/izmenenie-tsen-na-rynke-i-kuplya-prodazha-zhilya-v-dekabre-2023-goda/ (In Russian).
31. Rynok zhiloy nedvizhimosti. (2023). Halyk Finance Research. Retrieved March 19, 2024, from https://halykfinance.kz/download/files/analytics/re07032023.pdf (In Russian)
32. Abuev, A. (2023). Issledovanie Freedom Finance Global: Analitika rynka nedvizhimosti Kazakhstana. Freedom Broker. Retrieved February 12, 2024, from https://ffin.kz/research/4-issledovanie-freedom-finance-global-analitika-rynka-nedvidgimosti-kazakhstana (In Russian).
33. Kabzhalyalova, M. (2023). Ipotecnoe kreditovanie – gosudarstvo prakticheski vytesnilo rynok. Halyk Finance Research. Retrieved March 19, 2024, from https://halykfinance.kz/download/files/analytics/AC_mortgage.pdf (In Russian).
34. Press-reliz AO "Otbasy bank". (2023). AO "Otbasy bank". Retrieved February 16, 2024, from https://hcsbk.kz/ru/news/publications/v-otbasy-banke-ustupka-depozitov-stanet-dostupna-tolko-rodstvennikam/ (In Russian).
35. Kurmanbekov, A. (2024). Dogonit li rost tsen na zhil'yo inflyatsiyu. Halyk Finance Research. Retrieved March 22, 2024, from https://halykfinance.kz/download/files/analytics/AC_RE.pdf (In Russian).
Review
For citations:
Sikhimbayev M.R., Srailova G.N., Flek A.A. Analysis of the current state and forecasts of the development of the residential real estate market of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Central Asian Economic Review. 2024;(2):59-76. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.52821/2789-4401-2024-2-59-76