Budget Financing of Import Substitution in Kazakhstan: Sectoral Analysis and Performance Assessment (2022–2024)

The concept of “New Kazakhstan” (2022) emerged amid intensified logistics disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitical tensions in 2022–2023. Imports account for more than 60% of Kazakhstan’s consumption of manufactured goods, posing risks to the country’s economic resilience. The aim of this study is to analyze import substitution policy. Two aspects are examined: the prioritization of budgetary allocations and the mechanisms for controlling public expenditures in the formation of “New Kazakhstan.” Global instability and external economic challenges have reinforced interest in import substitution. The chronological scope of the study covers 2022–2025 (projections), corresponding to the implementation period of the “New Kazakhstan” policy course.

The mechanism contributes to strengthening economic sovereignty while simultaneously stimulating the development of domestic production. The methodological framework includes comparative and structuralfunctional analysis, calculation of growth rates of budget allocations (base and chain), and correlation coefficients between the volume of public investment and the growth of domestic output. In addition, digital tools for expenditure control are assessed. The study examines the theoretical foundations and global practices of import substitution, with a focus on budget financing and its effectiveness under Kazakhstan’s conditions.

The results indicate the highest economic impact in two sectors: pharmaceuticals and information technology. The paper presents three types of forecast indicators: GDP growth, reduction of import dependence, and employment growth. Barriers to the implementation of the strategy are identified, and three directions for overcoming them are proposed: infrastructure development, stimulation of research and development, and attraction of investment. Scientific novelty lies in the development of an original methodology for calculating the Import Substitution Budget Return Coefficient (ISBRC), tested on data from the Accounts Committee of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2022–2024 across four priority sectors. The effectiveness of import substitution policy is assessed from the perspective of the state budget. The practical value of the study is addressed to public authorities, analysts, and the academic community. Targeted recommendations are formulated for Kazakhstan’s pharmaceutical industry and IT sector to optimize the structure of budget financing.

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