Educational mobility and migration imbalance

Purpose of the study. The purpose of this article is to identify regional imbalances in migration flows in Kazakhstan and to examine their relationship with household income and expenditure. The study seeks to provide an objective regional assessment and to trace how educational mobility transforms the structure of human capital. Particular attention is given to shifts within the aspirations–capabilities framework [1] and to the processes of migration intellectualization [2], which enable migration to be conceptualized not merely as a quantitative outflow, but also as a qualitative redistribution of knowledge and competencies.

Methodology. The empirical basis of the study consists of data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan (2000–2024), official statistical resources (taldau.stat.gov.kz), as well as international databases of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) [3], [4], the International Organization for Migration [5], the International Center for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD) [6], and Open Doors [7]. Four groups of indicators were employed for a comprehensive assessment: (1) household income, expenditure, and poverty levels; (2) demographic indicators (fertility, household structure, urbanization); (3) migration data (balances of external and internal migration, flows by country and region, educational mobility); and (4) social infrastructure (availability of universities, number of students). Comparative and structural analysis methods were applied to assess the relationships between income, expenditure, fertility, and migration flows. In addition, an index-based approach was used to evaluate regional migration attractiveness, supplemented by regional cluster analysis, which allowed for the identification of “donor” and “recipient” regions of human capital.

Originality / value. For the first time, educational mobility is analyzed within the context of regional migration imbalances and socio-economic development indicators. The study highlights previously overlooked interconnections between migration flows, household income and expenditure, and the demographic structure of regions. Its novelty lies in the interpretation of migration not only as a quantitative outflow, but also as a process of intellectualization and redistribution of human capital. This approach enables the identification of hidden factors of resilience and vulnerability: from the ability of high-fertility regions to partially offset population losses to the risks faced by economically prosperous territories, where educational mobility becomes a channel for the long-term outflow of human capital, thereby reinforcing regional disparities and influencing national sustainable development trajectories.

Results. Despite fluctuations in migration volumes over the past five years, Kazakhstan continues to serve as a stable source of “brain drain” [8]. The country’s role as a provider of human capital is reinforced by persistent regional differences in migration motivations, which carry additional risks for long-term sustainable development. At the same time, high poverty levels constrain mobility, generating the phenomenon of “involuntary immobility.” Regional specificity is reflected in a persistent asymmetric: northern and eastern regions act as donors of qualified human capital, while southern and western regions offset migration losses through higher fertility and internal migration flows. Educational migration has become entrenched as a primary channel of “brain drain,” encompassing predominantly highly qualified professional groups (teachers, economists, lawyers, engineers), thereby amplifying risks to innovation-driven growth and macroeconomic stability. In sum, the study documents the institutionalization of educational mobility as a structural determinant of the spatial redistribution of human capital and underscores the need for regionally differentiated migration policy measures aimed at minimizing demographic and socio-economic imbalances. More broadly, the findings emphasize the importance of integrating region-specific instruments into migration policy, including measures to mitigate regional demographic risks and to promote the repatriation of skilled professionals as a means of strengthening national human potential.

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