Demographic development of Kazakhstan's regions: current trends and future prospects

Demographic processes are closely linked to economic problems, which is especially evident in the regions of Kazakhstan. Thus, population and labour force development trends are often not considered when developing programmes for the economic development of areas. The purpose of the study is to forecast the demographic situation in the regions of Kazakhstan, taking into account the peculiarities of their socio-economic development. Forecasts of the size and structure of the population are developed based on an analysis of trends in demographic processes and their cause-and-effect relationships with socio-economic processes. Data from the Bureau of National Statistics and the 2021 Population Census were used for calculations. For future calculations of the age-sex structure of the population, the method of moving age groups was used, which allows us to simultaneously take into account the impact of changes in both the age-sex structure of the population and fertility and mortality trends. The main result is the receipt of reliable and high-quality data on the size and composition of the population of the country's regions based on the study and analysis of quantitative and qualitative patterns of phenomena and processes occurring in the age-sex composition of the population. Studying patterns of change in the age and sex structure of the population as a result of fertility, mortality, and migration processes will allow an assessment of the differences that exist at the regional level for regional planning and decision-making on the appropriate allocation of resources in areas such as education, health, and social security.

1. «Kazakstannyn demografiyalyk zhylnamasy», 2017-2021» (2023), Bureau of National statistics of the Agency for Strategic planning and reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Retrieved October 18, 2024, from URL: https://stat.gov.kz/ru/industries/social-statistics/demography/ (In Kazakh).

2. Brillinger, D.R. (1961), “A justification of some common laws of mortality”, Transactions of society of actuaries, №13, рр.116-l19.

3. Wolfenden, H.H. (1954), Population Statistics and Their Compilation. Revised edition. Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago, 280p. DOI: 10.2307/2985749

4. Keyfitz, N. (1977), Applied Mathematical Demography, Wiley, New York, 581 p.

5. Pollard, J.H. (1979), Factors affecting mortality and the length of life, in “Population Science in the Service of Mankind”. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Vienna, 276 p.

6. Heligman, L. and Pollard, J.H. (1980), “The Age Pattern of Mortality”, Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, №107, pp.49–75.

7. Preston, S.H. and Vierboom, Y.C. (2021), “The Changing Age Distribution of the United States”, Population and Development Review, №47(2), pp. 527-539. DOI: 10.1111/padr.12386

8. Avdeyev A.A. and Troitskaya I.A. (2021), “Osobennosti i faktory demograficheskoy dinamiki v Kirgizskoy Respublike”, Zhurnal ekonomiki narodonaseleniya, №5(2), 29-54. DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e67183 (In Russian)

9. Pilkauskas, N.V., Amorim, M. and Dunifon, R.E. (2020), Historical Trends in Children Living in Multigenerational Households in the United States: 1870-2018. Demography, №57(2), pp. 1-28. DOI: 10.1007/s13524-020-00920-5

10. Klupt, M.A. (2008), Demografiya regionov Zemli. M. A. Klupt. SPb.: Peter, 2008, 465 p. (In Russian).

11. Nikitina, S.Y. (2009), Sovershenstvovaniye statisticheskoy metodologii prognozirovaniya chislennosti naseleniya v usloviyakh nedostatochnosti demograficheskikh dannykh. M.: MGU-VSHE, 191 p. (In Russian).

12. Chulanova, Z.K. (2022), “Quality of Life of the Population of Kazakhstan: Assessment of the Main Parameters and Identification of Problem Areas”, Journal of Asian and African studies, 8, 1-15. DOI: 10.1177/00219096221120924

13. Conti, S., Oliveira dos Santos, F. and Wolters, A. (2021), “A Novel Method for Identifying Care Home Residents in England: A Validation Study”, International Journal of Population Data Science, №5(4). DOI: 10.23889/ijpds.v5i4.1666.

14. Medkov, V.M. (2003), Osnovy demografii. Uchebnik. Rostov-na-Donu: Feniks, 448 p. (In Russian).

15. Popov, R.A. and Puzanov, A.S. (2023), Strategicheskoye planirovaniye na mestnom urovne. M.: Fond «Institut ekonomiki goroda», 85 p. (In Russian).

16. Tabeau, E. (2001), A review of demographic forecasting models for mortality. In E. Tabeau, A. van den Berg Jeths, & C. Heathcote (Eds.), Forecasting mortality in developed countries: insights from a statistical, demographic and epidemiological perspective (pp. 1–32). Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer. DOI: 10.1007/0-306-47562-6_1

17. Booth, H. and Tickle, L. (2008), “Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of methods”, Annals of Actuarial Science, №3(1–2), 3–43. DOI: 10.1017/S1748499500000440

18. Girosi, F. and King, G. (2008), Demographic forecasting. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 288 p. DOI: 10.1017/S1474747210000181

19. Cairns, A.J.G., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Coughlan, G.D., Epstein, D. and Khalaf-Allah, M. (2011), “Mortality density forecasts: an analysis of six stochastic mortality models”, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, №48(3), 355–367. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1340353

20. Lopaeva, V.A. (2010), Prognozirovaniye demograficheskikh protsessov v usloviyakh formirovaniya mezhterritorial'nykh sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh obshchnostey. Yekaterinburg: UrFO RAN, 223 p. (In Russian).

21. Stoeldraijer, L., van Duin, C., van Wissen, L. and Janssen, F. (2013), “Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: the case of the Netherlands”, Demographic Research, №29(13), 323–354. DOI: 10.4054/DEMRES.2013.29.13

22. Lee, R.D. and Carter, L. (1992), “Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, №87(419), 659–671. DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265

23. Shang, H.L., Booth, H. and Hyndman, R. (2011), “Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: a comparison of ten principal component methods”, Demographic Research, №25(5), 173–214. DOI: 10.4054/DEMRES.2011.25.5

24. Raftery, A.E., Chunn, J.L., Gerland, P. and Ševčíková, H. (2013), “Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries”, Demography, №50 (3), 777-801. DOI: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x.

25. Alkema, L., Raftery, A. E., Gerland, P., Clark, S. J., Pelletier, F., Buettner, T. and Heilig, G.K. (2011), “Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries”, Demography, №48(3), 815-39. DOI: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5.

26. Alkema, L., Raftery, A. E., Gerland, P., Clark, S. J. and Pelletier, F. (2012), “Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa”, Demographic Research, №26(15), 331-362. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.15.

27. Alkema, L., Chao F., You D., Pedersen J. and Sawyer C.C. (2014), “National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment”, The Lancet Global Health, №2 (9), pp. e521-e530. DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(14)70280-3.

28. Аmosov I.N. and Afonin A.I. (2011), “Indikatory demograficheskogo krizisa v kontekste natsional'noy bezopasnosti”, Pravo i politika, №9, pp. 69-80. (In Russian).

29. Klupt, M.A. (2010), “Demograficheskaya povestka 21 veka: teorii i realii”, Socis, №8, pp. 60–71. (In Russian).

30. Golod S.I. (2008), “Sotsiologicheskiy i demograficheskiy analiz sostoyaniya i evolyutsii sem'i”, Socis, №1, pp.40-49. (In Russian)

31. Karpova, V. M. (2009), “Stsenarii razvitiya protsessov stareniya naseleniya v zavisimosti ot demograficheskoy politiki”, Sotsiologiya: metodologiya, metody i mat. modelirovaniye (Sotsiologiya: 4M), №29, pp. 86–108. (In Russian)

32. Volkov, A.G. (2008), Demograficheskaya politika. M., Finansy i statistika, 21s. (In Russian).

33. Shoven, J.B. (2011), Demography and the Economy. A National Bureau of Economic Research, Conference Report, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 448 p.

34. Denton, F.T. and Spencer, B.G. (2003), Population Change And Economic Growth: The LongTerm Outlook. Hamilton: McMas, 383 p.

35. Preston, S., Heuveline, P., and Guillot, M. (2001), Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes, Blackwell Publishers, 306 p.

36. United Nations (2022), World Population Prospects 2022, New York: UN DESA, 52 p.

37. UNFPA (2020), State of World Population 2020, New York, 160 p.

38. International Labour Organization (2018), World Employment and Social Outlook 2018: Greening with Jobs, Geneva: ILO, 189 p.

39. Eurostat (2023), Population Projections in the EU, Luxembourg. Retrieved August 25, 2025, from URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Population_projections_in_the_EU

40. “World Population Prospects 2019: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections. Highlights (2019), United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. Retrieved October 18, 2024, from URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/files/wpp2019_highlights.pdf

41. “A unified ecosystem of the social and labor sphere” (2023), UNFPA, Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana. Retrieved October 18, 2024, from URL: https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/enbek/press/news/details/547918?lang=ru

42. He, Ch. (2011), Overview report on modernization in the world and China (2001-2010). Under the general editorship of N.I. Lapin. M.: Publishing house "Ves Mir", 256 p.

43. Spankulova, L.S. and Chulanova, Z.K. (2024), “Data on the demographic forecast of the Kazakhstan population”, Data in Brief, №52. DOI: 10.1016/j.dib.2023.109985

44. Korchak-Chepurkovsky, Yu.A. (2025). On the methodology and technique of prospective population calculations. Demoscope-Weekly, Retrieved August 25, 2025, from URL: https://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2021/0925/nauka02.php (In Russian).

45. Biggs, S., Phillipson, C., Money, A.‐M. Leach, R. (2006), “The age‐shift: observations on social policy, ageism and the dynamics of the adult lifecourse”, Welfare and the Community, №20 (3), pp. 239-250.

46. Gaisina S.N., Chulanova Z.K. and Dzhumashev N.M. (2023), “Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskiye riski vnutrennikh migratsionnykh protsessov i ikh vliyaniye na sotsial'no-territorial'nuyu mobil'nost' naseleniya Kazakhstana”, Ekonomika: strategiya i praktika, №17(3), pp. 174-188. DOI: 10.51176/1997-9967-2023-3-174-188 (In Russian).

47. “Dolgosrochnyy demograficheskiy prognoz do 2050 goda” (2021), Tsentr razvitiya chelovecheskikh resursov, Astana: CHRD. Retrieved October 18, 2024, from URL:https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/enbek/press/news/details/547918?lang=ru (In Russian).