caerCentral Asian Economic ReviewCentral Asian Economic Review2789-43982789-4401Университет Нархоз10.52821/2789-4401-2025-5-30-46caer-1585Research ArticleТЕОРИЯ И МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ НАУКИTHEORY AND METHODOLOGY OF ECONOMIC SCIENCEДемографическое развитие регионов Казахстана: актуальные тренды и будущие перспективыDemographic development of Kazakhstan's regions: current trends and future prospectshttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1865-4681СпанкуловаЛ. С.SpankulovaL. S.

Алматы

Spankulova Lazat Seitkazievna – Doctor of Economics, Professor 

Almaty 

spankulova@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-9333-7582ЧулановаЗ. К.ChulanovaZ. K.

Алматы

Chulanova Zaure Kazbekovna – PhD in Economics, Leading Researcher

Almaty 

zzaure555@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-1326-0410КонырбайА. Р.KonyrbayA. R.

Алматы

Konyrbay Adilet – PhD student 

Almaty 

adilet.kongyrbay@marsh.comКазахский национальный университет имени аль-Фараби КазахстанКазахстанAl-Farabi Kazakh National University KazakhstanKazakhstanИнститут экономики КН МСХЭ РККазахстанInstitute of Economics of the CS MSHE RKKazakhstan202505122025053046Copyright © Спанкулова Л.С., Чуланова З.К., Конырбай А.Р., 20252025Спанкулова Л.С., Чуланова З.К., Конырбай А.Р.Spankulova L.S., Chulanova Z.K., Konyrbay A.R.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://caer.narxoz.kz/jour/article/view/1585

Демографические процессы тесно связаны с экономическими проблемами, что особенно ярко проявляется в регионах Казахстана. Так, тенденции развития населения и трудовых ресурсов зачастую не учитываются при разработке программ экономического развития территорий. Целью исследования является прогнозирование демографической ситуации в регионах Казахстана с учетом особенностей их социально-экономического развития. Прогнозы численности и структуры населения разработаны на основе анализа тенденций демографических процессов и их причинно-следственных связей с социальноэкономическими процессами. Для расчетов использовались данные Бюро национальной статистики АСПР и Переписи населения 2021 года. Для будущих расчетов половозрастной структуры населения использовался метод передвижки возрастных групп, позволивший одновременно учитывать влияние изменений как половозрастной структуры населения, так и тенденций рождаемости и смертности. Основным результатом является получение достоверных и качественных данных о численности и составе населения регионов страны на основе изучения и анализа количественных и качественных закономерностей явлений и процессов, происходящих в половозрастном составе населения. Изучение закономерностей изменения половозрастной структуры населения в результате процессов рождаемости, смертности и миграции позволило оценить различия, существующие на региональном уровне, что представляется очень важным для регионального планирования и принятия решений по целесообразному распределению ресурсов в таких сферах как образование, здравоохранение и социальное обеспечение.

Demographic processes are closely linked to economic problems, which is especially evident in the regions of Kazakhstan. Thus, population and labour force development trends are often not considered when developing programmes for the economic development of areas. The purpose of the study is to forecast the demographic situation in the regions of Kazakhstan, taking into account the peculiarities of their socio-economic development. Forecasts of the size and structure of the population are developed based on an analysis of trends in demographic processes and their cause-and-effect relationships with socio-economic processes. Data from the Bureau of National Statistics and the 2021 Population Census were used for calculations. For future calculations of the age-sex structure of the population, the method of moving age groups was used, which allows us to simultaneously take into account the impact of changes in both the age-sex structure of the population and fertility and mortality trends. The main result is the receipt of reliable and high-quality data on the size and composition of the population of the country's regions based on the study and analysis of quantitative and qualitative patterns of phenomena and processes occurring in the age-sex composition of the population. Studying patterns of change in the age and sex structure of the population as a result of fertility, mortality, and migration processes will allow an assessment of the differences that exist at the regional level for regional planning and decision-making on the appropriate allocation of resources in areas such as education, health, and social security.

населениепрогнозрегиондисбалансымакрорегионКазахстанPopulationForecastRegionDisparityMacro-regionKazakhstanThis study was funded by the Committee of Science of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan under the grant projects IRN AP26198345 “Reducing Socio-Economic Inequality in Kazakhstan’s Regions through Investment in Health and Improved Healthcare System Organization”.ReferencesҚазақстанның демографиялық жылнамасы, 2017-2021 [Электронный ресурс] // Қазақстан Республикасы Стратегиялық жоспарлау және реформалар агенттігі Ұлттық статистика бюросы [webсайт]. – 2023. – URL: https://stat.gov.kz/ru/industries/social-statistics/demography/ (дата обращения: 18.10.2024)«Kazakstannyn demografiyalyk zhylnamasy», 2017-2021» (2023), Bureau of National statistics of the Agency for Strategic planning and reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Retrieved October 18, 2024, from URL: https://stat.gov.kz/ru/industries/social-statistics/demography/ (In Kazakh).Brillinger D.R. A justification of some common laws of mortality // Transactions of society of actuaries. - 1961. - №13. – Р.116-l19.Brillinger, D.R. (1961), “A justification of some common laws of mortality”, Transactions of society of actuaries, №13, рр.116-l19.Wolfenden H.H. Population Statistics and Their Compilation. Revised edition. - Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago, 1954. – 232 р. - DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2985749Wolfenden, H.H. (1954), Population Statistics and Their Compilation. Revised edition. Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago, 280p. DOI: 10.2307/2985749Keyfitz N. Applied Mathematical Demography. - Wiley, New York, 1977. – 581 р.Keyfitz, N. (1977), Applied Mathematical Demography, Wiley, New York, 581 p.Pollard J.H. Factors affecting mortality and the length of life, in “Population Science in the Service of Mankind”. - International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Vienna, 1979. – 276 р.Pollard, J.H. (1979), Factors affecting mortality and the length of life, in “Population Science in the Service of Mankind”. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, Vienna, 276 p.Heligman L., Pollard J.H. The Age Pattern of Mortality //Journal of the Institute of Actuaries. - 1980. - №107. – Р.49–75.Heligman, L. and Pollard, J.H. (1980), “The Age Pattern of Mortality”, Journal of the Institute of Actuaries, №107, pp.49–75.Preston S.H., Vierboom Y.C. The Changing Age Distribution of the United States. // Population and Development Review. - 2021. - №47(2). – Р.527-539. – DOI: 10.1111/padr.12386Preston, S.H. and Vierboom, Y.C. (2021), “The Changing Age Distribution of the United States”, Population and Development Review, №47(2), pp. 527-539. DOI: 10.1111/padr.12386Авдеев А.А., Троицкая И.А. Особенности и факторы демографической динамики в Киргизской Республике. // Журнал экономики народонаселения. - 2021. - №5(2). – С.29-54. - DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e67183Avdeyev A.A. and Troitskaya I.A. (2021), “Osobennosti i faktory demograficheskoy dinamiki v Kirgizskoy Respublike”, Zhurnal ekonomiki narodonaseleniya, №5(2), 29-54. DOI: 10.3897/popecon.5.e67183 (In Russian)Pilkauskas N.V., Amorim M., Dunifon R.E. Historical Trends in Children Living in Multigenerational Households in the United States: 1870-2018. //Demography. - 2020. - №57(2). – Р.1-28. – DOI: 10.1007/s13524-020-00920-5Pilkauskas, N.V., Amorim, M. and Dunifon, R.E. (2020), Historical Trends in Children Living in Multigenerational Households in the United States: 1870-2018. Demography, №57(2), pp. 1-28. DOI: 10.1007/s13524-020-00920-5Клупт М.А. Демография регионов Земли. М.А. Клупт. – СПб.: Питер, 2014. – 465 с.Klupt, M.A. (2008), Demografiya regionov Zemli. M. A. Klupt. SPb.: Peter, 2008, 465 p. (In Russian).Никитина С.Ю. Совершенствование статистической методологии прогнозирования численности населения в условиях недостаточности демографических данных. – М.: МГУ-ВШЭ, 2009. – 191 с.Nikitina, S.Y. (2009), Sovershenstvovaniye statisticheskoy metodologii prognozirovaniya chislennosti naseleniya v usloviyakh nedostatochnosti demograficheskikh dannykh. M.: MGU-VSHE, 191 p. (In Russian).Chulanova, Z.K. Quality of Life of the Population of Kazakhstan: Assessment of the Main Parameters and Identification of Problem Areas // Journal of Asian and African studies. – 2022. – №8 – С.1-15. – DOI: 10.1177/00219096221120924Chulanova, Z.K. (2022), “Quality of Life of the Population of Kazakhstan: Assessment of the Main Parameters and Identification of Problem Areas”, Journal of Asian and African studies, 8, 1-15. DOI: 10.1177/00219096221120924Conti S., Oliveira dos Santos F., Wolters A. A Novel Method for Identifying Care Home Residents in England: A Validation Study // International Journal of Population Data Science. - 2021. - №5(4). – DOI: 10.23889/ijpds.v5i4.1666.Conti, S., Oliveira dos Santos, F. and Wolters, A. (2021), “A Novel Method for Identifying Care Home Residents in England: A Validation Study”, International Journal of Population Data Science, №5(4). DOI: 10.23889/ijpds.v5i4.1666.Medkov V.M. Основы демографии. Учебник. Ростов-на-Дону: Феникс, 2003. – 448 c.Medkov, V.M. (2003), Osnovy demografii. Uchebnik. Rostov-na-Donu: Feniks, 448 p. (In Russian).Попов Р.А., Пузанов А.С. Стратегическое планирование на местном уровне. – М.: Фонд «Институт экономики города», 2023. – 144 c.Popov, R.A. and Puzanov, A.S. (2023), Strategicheskoye planirovaniye na mestnom urovne. M.: Fond «Institut ekonomiki goroda», 85 p. (In Russian).Tabeau E. A review of demographic forecasting models for mortality. In E. Tabeau, A. van den Berg Jeths, & C. Heathcote (Eds.), Forecasting mortality in developed countries: insights from a statistical, demographic and epidemiological perspective (pp. 1–32). - Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer, 2001. DOI: 10.1007/0-306-47562-6_1Tabeau, E. (2001), A review of demographic forecasting models for mortality. In E. Tabeau, A. van den Berg Jeths, & C. Heathcote (Eds.), Forecasting mortality in developed countries: insights from a statistical, demographic and epidemiological perspective (pp. 1–32). Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Springer. DOI: 10.1007/0-306-47562-6_1Booth H., Tickle L. Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of methods. // Annals of Actuarial Science. - 2008. - №3(1–2). – Р.3–43. – DOI: 10.1017/S1748499500000440Booth, H. and Tickle, L. (2008), “Mortality modelling and forecasting: a review of methods”, Annals of Actuarial Science, №3(1–2), 3–43. DOI: 10.1017/S1748499500000440Girosi F., King G. Demographic forecasting. - Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2008. – 288 p. – DOI: 10.1017/S1474747210000181Girosi, F. and King, G. (2008), Demographic forecasting. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 288 p. DOI: 10.1017/S1474747210000181Cairns A.J.G., Blake D., Dowd K., Coughlan G.D., Epstein D., Khalaf-Allah M. Mortality density forecasts: an analysis of six stochastic mortality models. // Insurance: Mathematics and Economic. – 2011. - №48(3). – Р.355–367. – DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1340353Cairns, A.J.G., Blake, D., Dowd, K., Coughlan, G.D., Epstein, D. and Khalaf-Allah, M. (2011), “Mortality density forecasts: an analysis of six stochastic mortality models”, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, №48(3), 355–367. DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1340353Лопаева В.А. Прогнозирование демографических процессов в условиях формирования межтерриториальных социально-экономических общностей. - Екатеринбург: УрФО РАН, 2010. – 223 с.Lopaeva, V.A. (2010), Prognozirovaniye demograficheskikh protsessov v usloviyakh formirovaniya mezhterritorial'nykh sotsial'no-ekonomicheskikh obshchnostey. Yekaterinburg: UrFO RAN, 223 p. (In Russian).Stoeldraijer L., van Duin C., van Wissen L., Janssen F. Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: the case of the Netherlands // Demographic Research. - 2013. - №29(13). – Р.323–354. – DOI: 10.4054/DEMRES.2013.29.13Stoeldraijer, L., van Duin, C., van Wissen, L. and Janssen, F. (2013), “Impact of different mortality forecasting methods and explicit assumptions on projected future life expectancy: the case of the Netherlands”, Demographic Research, №29(13), 323–354. DOI: 10.4054/DEMRES.2013.29.13Lee R.D., Carter L. Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality // Journal of the American Statistical Association. - 1992. - №87(419). – Р.659–671. – DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265Lee, R.D. and Carter, L. (1992), “Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, №87(419), 659–671. DOI: 10.1080/01621459.1992.10475265Shang H.L., Booth H., Hyndman R. Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: a comparison of ten principal component methods. // Demographic Research. - 2011. - №25(5). - Р.173–214. - DOI: https://doi.org/10.4054/DEMRES.2011.25.5Shang, H.L., Booth, H. and Hyndman, R. (2011), “Point and interval forecasts of mortality rates and life expectancy: a comparison of ten principal component methods”, Demographic Research, №25(5), 173–214. DOI: 10.4054/DEMRES.2011.25.5Raftery A.E., Chunn J.L., Gerland P., Ševčíková H. Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries // Demography. - 2013. - №50 (3). – Р.777-801. - DOI: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x.Raftery, A.E., Chunn, J.L., Gerland, P. and Ševčíková, H. (2013), “Bayesian probabilistic projections of life expectancy for all countries”, Demography, №50 (3), 777-801. DOI: 10.1007/s13524-012-0193-x.Alkema L., Raftery A.E., Gerland P., Clark S.J., Pelletier F., Buettner T., Heilig G.K. Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries //Demography. - 2011. - №48(3). – Р.815-39. – DOI: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5.Alkema, L., Raftery, A. E., Gerland, P., Clark, S. J., Pelletier, F., Buettner, T. and Heilig, G.K. (2011), “Probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for all countries”, Demography, №48(3), 815-39. DOI: 10.1007/s13524-011-0040-5.Alkema L., Raftery A.E., Gerland P., Clark S.J., Pelletier F. Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa. // Demographic Research. - 2012. - №26(15). – Р.331-362. – DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.15.Alkema, L., Raftery, A. E., Gerland, P., Clark, S. J. and Pelletier, F. (2012), “Estimating trends in the total fertility rate with uncertainty using imperfect data: Examples from West Africa”, Demographic Research, №26(15), 331-362. DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2012.26.15.Alkema L., Chao F., You D., Pedersen J., Sawyer C.C. National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment. // The Lancet Global Health. - 2014. - №2(9). – Р.e521-e530. – DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(14)70280-3.Alkema, L., Chao F., You D., Pedersen J. and Sawyer C.C. (2014), “National, regional, and global sex ratios of infant, child, and under-5 mortality and identification of countries with outlying ratios: a systematic assessment”, The Lancet Global Health, №2 (9), pp. e521-e530. DOI: 10.1016/s2214-109x(14)70280-3.Амосов И.Н., Афонин А.И. Индикаторы демографического кризиса в контексте национальной безопасности. // Право и политика. - 2011. - №9. – Р. 69-80.Аmosov I.N. and Afonin A.I. (2011), “Indikatory demograficheskogo krizisa v kontekste natsional'noy bezopasnosti”, Pravo i politika, №9, pp. 69-80. (In Russian).Клупт М.А. Демографическая повестка дня XXI века: теории и реалии. – Socis. - 2010. - №8. – Р. 60–71.Klupt, M.A. (2010), “Demograficheskaya povestka 21 veka: teorii i realii”, Socis, №8, pp. 60–71. (In Russian).Голод С.И. Социологический и демографический анализ состояния и эволюции семьи. // Socis. - 2008. - №1. – Р. 40-49.Golod S.I. (2008), “Sotsiologicheskiy i demograficheskiy analiz sostoyaniya i evolyutsii sem'i”, Socis, №1, pp.40-49. (In Russian)Карпова В.М. Сценарии развития процессов старения населения в зависимости от демографической политики. // Социология: 4M. - 2009. - №29. – Р. 86–108.Karpova, V. M. (2009), “Stsenarii razvitiya protsessov stareniya naseleniya v zavisimosti ot demograficheskoy politiki”, Sotsiologiya: metodologiya, metody i mat. modelirovaniye (Sotsiologiya: 4M), №29, pp. 86–108. (In Russian)Волков А.Г. Демографическая политика. - М., Финансы и статистика, 2008. - 21с.Volkov, A.G. (2008), Demograficheskaya politika. M., Finansy i statistika, 21s. (In Russian).Shoven J.B. Demography and the Economy. A National Bureau of Economic Research. Conference Report. - Chicago: University Of Chicago Press, 2011. – 448 р.Shoven, J.B. (2011), Demography and the Economy. A National Bureau of Economic Research, Conference Report, Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 448 p.Denton F.T., Spencer B.G. Population Change And Economic Growth: The LongTerm Outlook. - Hamilton: McMas, 2003. – 383 р.Denton, F.T. and Spencer, B.G. (2003), Population Change And Economic Growth: The LongTerm Outlook. Hamilton: McMas, 383 p.Preston S., Heuveline P., Guillot M. Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. - Blackwell Publishers, 2001. – 306 p.Preston, S., Heuveline, P., and Guillot, M. (2001), Demography: Measuring and Modeling Population Processes, Blackwell Publishers, 306 p.World Population Prospects 2022. - New York: UN DESA, 2023. – 52 p.United Nations (2022), World Population Prospects 2022, New York: UN DESA, 52 p.State of World Population 2020. - New York: UNFPA, 2020. – 160 p.UNFPA (2020), State of World Population 2020, New York, 160 p.World Employment and Social Outlook 2018: Greening with Jobs. – Geneva: International Labour Organization, 2018. – 189 p.International Labour Organization (2018), World Employment and Social Outlook 2018: Greening with Jobs, Geneva: ILO, 189 p.Population Projections in the EU. – Eurostat, 2023. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Population_projections_in_the_EU (дата обращения: 25.08.2025)Eurostat (2023), Population Projections in the EU, Luxembourg. Retrieved August 25, 2025, from URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Population_projections_in_the_EUWorld Population Prospects 2019: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections. Highlights (ST/ESA/SER.A/423), United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, UN DESA, 2019. – URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/files/wpp2019_highlights.pdf (дата обращения: 18.10.2024)“World Population Prospects 2019: Methodology of the United Nations population estimates and projections. Highlights (2019), United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. Retrieved October 18, 2024, from URL: https://population.un.org/wpp/publications/files/wpp2019_highlights.pdfA unified ecosystem of the social and labor sphere. UNFPA, Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan. – Astana, 2023. – URL: https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/enbek/press/news/details/547918?lang=ru (дата обращения: 18.10.2024)“A unified ecosystem of the social and labor sphere” (2023), UNFPA, Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Astana. Retrieved October 18, 2024, from URL: https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/enbek/press/news/details/547918?lang=ruHe Ch. Overview report on modernization in the world and China (2001-2010). Under the general editorship of N.I. Lapin. - M.: Publishing house "Ves Mir", 2011. – 256 с.He, Ch. (2011), Overview report on modernization in the world and China (2001-2010). Under the general editorship of N.I. Lapin. M.: Publishing house "Ves Mir", 256 p.Spankulova L.S., Chulanova Z.K. Data on the demographic forecast of the Kazakhstan population. // Data in Brief. - (2024). - №52. - Р.1-12. DOI: 10.1016/j.dib.2023.109985Spankulova, L.S. and Chulanova, Z.K. (2024), “Data on the demographic forecast of the Kazakhstan population”, Data in Brief, №52. DOI: 10.1016/j.dib.2023.109985Корчак-Чепурковский Ю.А. О методике и технике перспективных расчетов населения // Демоскоп-Weekly, № 925–926. URL: https://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2021/0925/nauka02.php (дата обращения: 25.08.2025)Korchak-Chepurkovsky, Yu.A. (2025). On the methodology and technique of prospective population calculations. Demoscope-Weekly, Retrieved August 25, 2025, from URL: https://www.demoscope.ru/weekly/2021/0925/nauka02.php (In Russian).Biggs S., Phillipson C., Money A.‐M., Leach R. The age‐shift: observations on social policy, ageism and the dynamics of the adult lifecourse // Welfare and the Community. - 2006. - №20 (3). – Р. 239-250.Biggs, S., Phillipson, C., Money, A.‐M. Leach, R. (2006), “The age‐shift: observations on social policy, ageism and the dynamics of the adult lifecourse”, Welfare and the Community, №20 (3), pp. 239-250.Гайсина С.Н., Чуланова З.К., Джумашев Н.М. Социально-экономические риски внутренних миграционных процессов и их влияние на социально-территориальную мобильность населения Казахстана // Экономика: стратегия и практика. - (2023). - №18(3). – С.174-188. - DOI: 10.51176/1997-9967-2023-3-174-188Gaisina S.N., Chulanova Z.K. and Dzhumashev N.M. (2023), “Sotsial'no-ekonomicheskiye riski vnutrennikh migratsionnykh protsessov i ikh vliyaniye na sotsial'no-territorial'nuyu mobil'nost' naseleniya Kazakhstana”, Ekonomika: strategiya i praktika, №17(3), pp. 174-188. DOI: 10.51176/1997-9967-2023-3-174-188 (In Russian).Долгосрочный демографический прогноз до 2050 года. Центр развития человеческих ресурсов. - Астана: ЦРЧР, 2021. – URL: https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/enbek/press/news/details/547918?lang=ru (дата обращения: 25.08.2025)“Dolgosrochnyy demograficheskiy prognoz do 2050 goda” (2021), Tsentr razvitiya chelovecheskikh resursov, Astana: CHRD. Retrieved October 18, 2024, from URL:https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/enbek/press/news/details/547918?lang=ru (In Russian).

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.