State policy in the field of foreign investment in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector: effectiveness and development vectors

Purpose of the study – The main objective of this study is to assess the investment policy in the oil and gas sector of the Republic of Kazakhstan and to analyze the current state of foreign investment inflows. The study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of state policy in attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) into the oil and gas industry and to identify the key factors influencing this process.
Methodology – The study employs economic and institutional analysis to examine the experience of attracting FDI into Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector. Empirical data were drawn from official statistics of the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan and research reports covering the period from 2010 to 2023. Within the framework of comparative analysis, investment flows from Kazakhstan’s major investing countries—such as the Netherlands, Russia, Switzerland, and others—were examined. In addition, the national legal framework and mechanisms of state regulation were analyzed in terms of their influence on FDI dynamics. Based on the findings, the study proposes practical recommendations for improving the management of foreign investments in the oil and gas sector.
Originality / value of the study – The research is distinguished by its comprehensive assessment of the current state and trends of FDI in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector, as well as an evaluation of the impact of foreign capital on a strategically important segment of the national economy. The article examines the actual investment dynamics during 2019–2023 and analyzes the structure and transformation of Kazakhstan’s investment policy in the oil and gas sector. Particular attention is given to the economic influence of key investor countries such as the United States, China, the Netherlands, South Korea, and Belgium.
Research Results – The findings may be applied to the development of measures aimed at stabilizing and diversifying foreign investment inflows, enhancing institutional reforms, and stimulating investment in the petrochemical and refining sectors. Although the volume of FDI in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector remains relatively stable, recent years have shown a downward trend due to global market fluctuations and a more complex investment climate. The article presents specific policy proposals to address these challenges.

1. Hájek, P. (2019). Foreign investments in priority sector the economy of Kazakhstan. Asian Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 5, 10–17. Retrieved May 27, 2025, from https://doi.org/10.26577/cajsh-2019-3-s2

2. Orazgaliyev, S., & Akhmetzharov, S. (2020). Kazakhstan’s economy and the oil sector: A developmental state or resource curse model? In The Political Economy of Resource Governance (pp. 15–50). Singapore: Springer. Retrieved May 27, 2025, from https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-15-6899-2_2

3. Demeuov, N., & Yesdauletova, A. (2023). The current state and structure of foreign direct investment in the Republic of Kazakhstan. Economic Series of the Bulletin of the L.N. Gumilyov ENU, 1, 34–45. Retrieved May 27, 2025, from https://doi.org/10.32523/2789-4320-2023-1-34-45

4. Temirbayev, B., Zagal, K., & Akhmetzhanova, S. (2021). Investment climate of Kazakhstan: Trends of change. Kazakhstan-Spectrum, 4. Retrieved May 27, 2025, from https://doi.org/10.52536/2415-8216.2021-4.05

5. Gawad, A., & Muramall, G. M. V. S. S. R. (2013). Foreign direct investment (FDI) and its effects on oil, gas, and refinery production and their exports: An applied study. Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 4(1), 21–35.

6. Pongsiri, N. (2005). Foreign direct investment and regulation: A case study of Thailand’s upstream oil and gas industry. OGEL - Oil, Gas & Energy Law Journal. Retrieved March 20, 2025, from https://www.ogel.org

7. Doskaliyeva, B. B. (2016). Development of the system of investment support of projects in the industrialinnovative development of Kazakhstan. International Journal of Environmental and Science Education, 11(12), 5109–5127.

8. Amangeldinova, M. K., Saparova, B. S., & Shayakhmetova, L. M. (2024). Kazakhstan kompaniyalary investitsiyalyq qyzmetining innovatsiyalyq aleuetin ekonomycalyq tiimdiligin bagalau. Kazakhstan Respublikasy Ulttyq Gylym Akademiyasynyn Khabarshysy, 6(412), 319–337. Retrieved March 20, 2025, from http://www.bulletin-science.kz/index.php/en/ (in Kazakh)

9. Otarbaeva, A. B., & Arupov, A. A. (2020). Analiz vliyaniya pryamykh inostrannykh investitsiy na razvitie neftegazovoy otrasli Kazakhstana. The Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration, 4(134), 66–78. Retrieved March 20, 2025, from https://be.kaznu.kz (in Russian)

10. Ahmadi, M., Manera, M., & Sadeghzadeh, M. (2019). The investment-uncertainty relationship in the oil and gas industry. Resources Policy, 63, 101439. Retrieved March 20, 2025, from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2019.101439

11. Bogmans, C., Pescatori, A., & Prifti, E. (2024). The impact of climate policy on oil and gas investment: Evidence from firm-level data. European Economic Review, 165, 104750. Retrieved March 20, 2025, from https://doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2024.104750

12. Bond, S., & Van Reenen, J. (2007). Microeconometric models of investment and employment. In Handbook of Econometrics, Volume 6A (pp. 4417–4498). Retrieved March 20, 2025, from https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4412(07)06065-5

13. Kurmanguzhin, R. S. (2017). Vozmozhen li novy etap sotrudnichestva Kazakhstana s Evrosoyuzom? Retrieved March 20, 2025, from https://almau.edu.kz/images/uploads/files/4bd74c1e76d9b11f275078dd1a8fa621.pdf (in Russian)

14. Zuoqian, W., Zhe, F., Xi, C. H., & Yong, L. (2024). Global oil and gas development situation, trends and enlightenment in 2023. Petroleum Exploration and Development, 51(6), 1536–1555. Retrieved March 20, 2025, from https://doi.org/10.1016/S1876-3804(25)60558-1

15. Kazakhstan's oilfields, disputes and settlements with oil majors. (2025, January 28). Reuters. Retrieved March 20, 2025, from https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/kazakhstans-oilfields-disputes-settlements-withoil-majors-2025-01-28/

16. AIFC anyktamalygy. (2024, 3-toqsan). Retrieved March 20, 2025, from https://aifc.kz/ (in Kazakh)

17. Qazaqstan Respublikasy Ulttyq statistika byurosy. Munay zhane gaz eksporttau statistikasy [Elektrondyq resurs]. Retrieved March 20, 2025, from https://stat.gov.kz (in Kazakh)

18. Qazaqstan Respublikasy Premier-Ministrinin resmi aqparattyq resursy. Retrieved March 20, 2025, from https://primeminister.kz/ (in Kazakh)

19. Qazaqstan Respublikasy Energetika ministrligi. Qazaqstandagy munay zhane gaz ondiru turaly resmi esepter [Elektrondyq resurs]. Retrieved March 20, 2025, from https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/energo (in Kazakh)