Economic and mathematical model for developing the credit policy of commercial banks: a case study of «BankCenterCredit» JSC

The primary objective of this study is to develop an economic-mathematical model for constructing the credit policy of a commercial bank. This model is aimed at optimizing the structure of the credit portfolio, reducing credit risks, and enhancing the bank's financial stability in the context of a changing economic environment.

The research methodology involves the application of economic-mathematical modeling techniques, such as correlation and regression analyses. These methods enabled the identification of key relationships between macroeconomic indicators and the internal parameters of the credit portfolio, as well as their impact on overall profitability and risk.

The originality of the study lies in the development of a unique model tailored to the specific characteristics of commercial banking operations in Kazakhstan. The model takes into account both macroeconomic and bank-specific factors, making it universal and applicable for analyzing the credit policies of other banks not only in Kazakhstan but also abroad.

The research findings demonstrate the high efficiency of the proposed model, as evidenced by the data from JSC «BankCenterCredit» for the period 2019-2023. The implemented credit risk management strategies have reduced the share of non-performing loans by 15% and increased the return on assets by 10%. This confirms that the proposed model contributes to the bank's stability and can be integrated into strategic planning. The practical value of the model lies in its potential use for developing and implementing a credit policy that aims to achieve long-term improvements in the financial stability and competitiveness of commercial banks.

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