FORECASTING DEMAND FOR CENTRAL BANK DIGITAL CURRENCY (CBDC) IN KAZAKHSTAN

Purpose of the research – the aim of this study is to predict the demand for central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) using household survey data. Additionally, it seeks to develop a logit model to analyze the demand for cash and deposits, and to estimate the demand for CBDCs within the framework of this model.Methodology - the research methodology includes analysing the current microeconometric situation, in order to forecast the potential demand for CBDC in Kazakhstan compared to its close alternatives, using the framework developed by Li. Jiaqi (Li. Jiaqi, 2023) based on a structural demand model.

Estimating the potential demand for CBDC is important for understanding the impact of CBDC on banking products and the potential for utilising CBDC in Kazakhstan.

Originality / value of the research – the relevance of the chosen topic of the study is due to the rapid development of digital technologies and the introduction of central bank digital currency (CBDC) by many countries. The emergence of CBDC is inextricably linked to the socio-economic processes that condition the development of fiat money.

For a long time, cash money was the most universally used form of fiat money.

However, in recent years in most countries of the world there has been an objective process of falling demand for cash as a means of payment. This is due to the widespread digitalisation of the monetary sphere, which allowed banks in the 2000s to introduce new payment instruments and technologies that made cashless payments faster, more convenient, secure and universal. The latter is especially important for payments in ecommerce and mobile commerce networks.

Findings – the results of the study include: forecasting of CBDC demand using survey data collected by NAC Analytica for JSC "Centre for Development of Payment and Financial Technologies of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan" through web survey of households (2024). Also an important result of this study is the estimption of demand for CBC on the basis of household survey, construction of logit model of demand for cash and deposits, determination of demand for CBDC within the logit model.

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