Assessment of the impact of the employment roadmap on the unemployment rate of the Republic of Kazakhstan: synthetic control method

The purpose of the research is to assess the impact of the action plan of the Employment Roadmap on the unemployment rate in Kazakhstan.

Methodology. Synthetic Control Method was used in this paper. The method, which compares one or more units exposed to the event and determines what would have happened if the unit had not been treated. In other words, this method creates a weighted combination of control states to create a single «synthetic» control group, in order to approach the counterfactual unit in Kazakhstan in the absence of a plan or Roadmap.

The originality / value of the research based on the analysis, panel data from Kazakhstan and 13 donor pool countries for the period 2000-2019 were taken for modeling.

Findings: As a result of the study, it was revealed that the unemployment rate would have been 2% higher in 2019 if Kazakhstan had not adopted an action plan in the form of an Employment Roadmap in 2009.

1. Pohlan L. (2019), “Unemployment and social exclusion”, Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. Volume 164, pp. 273-299.

2. Jussibaliyeva А., Kunurkulzhaeva, G., Orynbassarova, A., Akhmetova, G. & Baikadamov, N. (2019), “State employment policy in Kazakhstan: Current issues and directions of its implementation”, Central Asian Economic Review, No. 6 (129), pp. 9-20.

3. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (2016), “Global Sustainable Development Report”, New York, 153 p., available at: https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/index.php?page=view&type=400&nr=2328&menu=1515 (accessed January 3, 2021).

4. “O merah po realizacii Poslaniya Glavy Gosudarstva narodu Kazahstana ot 6 marta 2009 goda «Cherez krizis k obnovleniyu i razvitiyu». Postanovlenie Pravitel'stva Respubliki Kazahstan ot 6 marta 2009 goda № 264” (2009), available at: http://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/P090000264_ (accessed: January 1, 2021) (in Russian).

5. “Ob utverzhdenii Dorozhnoj karty zanyatosti na 2020-2021 gody. Rasporyazhenie Prem'er-Ministra Respubliki Kazahstan ot 27 marta 2020 goda № 55-r” (2020), available at: http://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/R2000000055 (accessed: January 1, 2021) (in Russian).

6. “Rasporyazhenie Prem'er-Ministra Respubliki Kazahstan ot 27 marta 2020 goda № 55-r. Ob utverzhdenii Dorozhnoj karty zanyatosti na 2020-2021 gody” (2020), available at: https://online.zakon.kz/Document/?doc_id=37352329#pos=0;0 (accessed: January 2, 2021) (in Russian).

7. Data of the official website of the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection of the Republic of Kazakhstan (2020), available at: http://enbek.gov.kz/ru/node/359322 (accessed: September 7, 2020) (in Russian).

8. Smagulova Sh. A. & Tanzharikova Sh. A. (2017), “Ocenka razvitiya chelovecheskogo kapitala”, Statistics, accounting and audit, No. 1(64), pp. 164-173. (in Russian).

9. Dyussembekova G. & Sultanova Z. (2018), “Evaluation of economic efficiency of programs of the Republic of Kazakhstan (a case of “Employment roadmap - 2020” state program)”, Central Asian Economic Review, No. 5-6, pp. 62-72.

10. Nusyupbayeva G. N., Abilova A. B., Kenesbaeva L. B. & Aubakirova G. B. (2019), “Problemy zanyatosti i bezraboticy v Respublike Kazahstan”, Vestnik KazNRTU, No. 5, pp. 569-575 (in Russian).

11. Amangeldinova S. E., Protasova O. V. & Gorkovenka L. A. (2020). “Kazahstan v novyh zhiznennyh realiyah pandemii koronovirusa”, Innovacionnaya ekonomika: perspektivy razvitiya i sovershenstvovaniya, No. 3 (45), pp. 13-19 (in Russian).

12. Abadie A. & Gardeazabal J. (2003), “The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country”, American Economic Review, No. 93(1), pp. 112-132.

13. Abadie A., Diamond A. & Hainmueller J. (2010), “Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies: estimating the effect of California's tobacco control program”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, No. 105(490), pp. 493-505.

14. Mukhamediyev B., Temerbulatova Zh. & Ilyashova G. (2020), “The effect of Eurasian Economic Union on trade of Kazakhstan: impact evaluation using the Synthetic Control Method”, Economy: strategy and practice, No. 2(15), pp. 55-64.

15. World Development Indicators of World Bank, available at: http://datatopics. worldbank.org/worlddevelopmentindicators/themes/economy.html (accessed: January 3, 2021).