The Impact of External Migration on The Labor Market of Almaty Amid Geopolitical Crisis

Purpose of the study. This article analyzes the impact of external migration on the Almaty labor market in the context of increasing geopolitical instability and the transformation of regional migration flows.

Research methodology. The research methodology is based on an integrated approach, employing quantitative statistical analysis methods. The empirical base includes statistics from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2000–2024 and international studies, which made it possible to empirically test theoretical assumptions about the impact of external migration on Almaty’s labor market through comparative, structural, and correlation analysis.

Originality / value of the study. The originality of the article lies in analyzing the impact of external migration on the labor market of Almaty as a regional megapolis and a center of migrant attraction, taking into account current geopolitical changes, which has been poorly covered in the scientific literature. Its value is determined by its relevance, economic-geographical focus, and the potential practical application of the results for developing effective migration and labor policies at the regional level.

Research results. The findings indicate that since 2022 external migration has influenced Almaty’s labor market through a reduction in brain drain and an increased inflow of skilled specialists. At the same time, an analysis of the educational structure of migration flows reveals a persistent qualitative imbalance. Despite the increase in the influx of specialists after 2022, the share of individuals with higher education among those leaving the country remains higher than among those arriving. From 2022 to 2024, this figure was, on average, approximately 1.5 times higher than the corresponding share among immigrants. Thus, migration processes are simultaneously showing signs of stabilization and persistent risks of intellectual resource drain. The obtained results confirm the need to develop mechanisms for the integration of skilled migrants into the city’s economy.

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