The impact of cultural policy on the economic performance of Kazakhstan’s cultural and creative sector: results of structural equation modeling

Purpose – To assess the impact of cultural policy on the economic development of Kazakhstan, taking into account the mediating role of creative activity and human capital in the context of the modern creative economy. In this paper, economic development» is operationalized as the economic performance of the cultural and creative sector (growth of cultural GVA, the share of cultural GVA in GDP, and exports of creative goods).

Methodology – Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) with latent variables based on official statistics of Kazakhstan for 2020–2024; application of Harrington’s desirability functions to aggregate indicators and construct composite indices of cultural policy, creative activity, human capital and economic development.

Originality / value – The paper offers a quantitative operationalization of cultural policy as a manageable economic resource by integrating it with indicators of the creative economy and human capital within a single structural model. It demonstrates how cultural policy can be incorporated into macroeconomic analysis and used to inform adjustments to economic strategy.

Research findings – The study shows that cultural policy in Kazakhstan is positively associated with creative activity and human capital, while its direct effect on economic development is negative and the indirect effects via creative activity and human capital are statistically insignificant. This suggests that, in its current configuration, cultural policy functions mainly as a cost rather than a growth factor, and that its instruments need to be reoriented toward supporting creative industries, the export of cultural products and the development of human capital.

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