Modeling of logistics processes under risk conditions: experience and development features

Risk as an Element of the Economic Life of Society Accompanies the Activities of Organizations in Unstable Market Conditions. Modern trends lead to a rapid increase in the volume and diversity of data used in predictive models, characterizing logistics processes and determining the relevance of studying experiences and development features.

The purpose of the study is to analyze the modeling of logistics processes under risk conditions. Changes in the national economy require restructuring supply chains to maintain procurement and supplies from abroad. Many businesses are forced to find new suppliers and partners in previously unconsidered countries. This restructuring increases logistics risks, emphasizing the importance of their timely and comprehensive analysis and assessment.

Research Methodology. The study is based on scientific methods such as dynamic series analysis and theoretical generalization. Approaches to modeling logistics processes under risk conditions were analyzed and generalized using research by Kazakhstani scientists in supply chain management. The limitations of logistics risk modeling were substantiated, and key directions for scientific research were identified.

Originality (value) of the research lies in describing the main qualitative and quantitative methods for assessing logistics risks and their application specifics.

Research Results. The study developed requirements for an ideal logistics process model, combining the advantages and addressing the shortcomings of existing methods. The key ultimate goal for the proposed model was also formulated. This research contributes to understanding and improving logistics process modeling under conditions of uncertainty.

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