Trends in the development of the digital economy in Kazakhstan: statistical analysis

Purpose: This article employs a regression-correlation approach to analyze indicators of Kazakhstan's economic digital transformation, utilizing statistical data to forecast changes in GDP per capita. The purpose of this analysis is to investigate the influence of digitalization on the economic development of the country, and to summarize the main factors driving the development of the digital economy

Methods: We use official statistics (2000–2023) and IBM SPSS Statistics software to estimate regression models and produce scenario forecasts.

Originality/Value: The primary value of this research lies in its analysis of key digital economy indicators and their impact on the country's GDP per cap.

Results: This study investigates the relationship between key innovation and technology indicators and economic growth, measured by Gross Domestic Product per capita in Kazakhstan. Using a stepwise multiple regression analysis on time-series data from 2000 to 2023, we identify the most significant predictors of GDP per capita. The final model, which includes internal R&D expenditures, internet users, R&D organizations (X1) and R&D personnel, demonstrates a strong explanatory power with an R2 of 0.995. The findings reveal that financial investment in R&D and digital infrastructure are the most powerful drivers of economic growth.

Limitations: The time-series analysis presented carries an inherent risk of spurious regression due to potential non-stationarity of the data.

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