Analysis of methods for assessing the tax potential of a region (using the example of the east Kazakhstan region)

Purpose of the research. The aim of the research is to identify the primary methodologies for comprehensively assessing the tax potential of a region, using the East Kazakhstan region as an example. This will enable a thorough analysis of the factors influencing the formation of the local budget's revenue component, thereby supporting the sustainable development of the region.

Methodology. A variety of methods were employed during the research: statistical analysis for processing data characterizing the region's tax base and tax revenue dynamics, econometric modeling for forecasting tax potential, and comparative analysis for evaluating different methodologies for assessing tax potential in the region. A literature review of scientific works on the topic was conducted, which allowed for an examination of tax potential assessment issues in various regions of Kazakhstan and abroad, and highlighted the main methodologies used for a comprehensive assessment of the factors influencing the formation of the East Kazakhstan region's budget revenue.

Originality / value. The originality of the research lies in the development and application of an integrated approach to assessing the region's tax potential, which is particularly important for optimizing the tax policy of East Kazakhstan. The study takes into account not only the regional economic characteristics but also the adaptability of advanced tax potential methodologies to East Kazakhstan, which could serve as a foundation for effective management of tax resources within the region.

Findings. The main factors influencing the formation of East Kazakhstan’s tax potential were identified, including economic activity, sectoral structure, and demographic indicators. It was established that applying a comprehensive approach to assessing tax potential allows for more accurate revenue forecasting and optimization of the region’s tax policy. Practical recommendations were provided for improving the efficiency of utilizing East Kazakhstan’s tax potential. The necessity of adapting the most effective tax potential assessment methodologies for forecasting tax revenues and developing tax policies that contribute to the sustainable development of East Kazakhstan was substantiated.

1. Basnukaev, M. N. (2022). Nalogovyj potencial regiona – osnovopolagayushchee zveno v formirovanii byudzheta [The Tax Potential of the Region as a Fundamental Element in Budget Formation]. III Vserossijskaya nauchno-prakticheskaya konferenciya s mezhdunarodnym uchastiem «Social'no-ekonomicheskie i finansovye aspekty razvitiya Rossijskoj Federacii i eyo regionov v sovremennyh usloviyah», posvyashchyonnaya 50-letiyu sozdaniya ekonomicheskogo fakul'teta, 141-149. DOI: 10.36684/62-2022-3-141-149. (In Russian).

2. Zakon Respubliki Kazahstan (2014). Ot 28 noyabrya 2014 goda № 257-V «O vnesenii izmenenij i dopolnenij v nekotorye zakonodatel'nye akty Respubliki Kazahstan po voprosam nalogooblozheniya» [On Amendments and Additions to Certain Legislative Acts of the Republic of Kazakhstan on Taxation Issues] (s izmeneniyami po sostoyaniyu na 30.11.2016 g.). Yurist. Retrieved August 25, 2024, from https://online.zakon.kz/Document/?doc_id=31635480&pos=1;-16#pos=1;-16 (In Russian).

3. Zotikov, N.Z. (2024). Nalogovyj potencial regionov kak osnova byudzhetnoj sistemy [The Tax Potential of Regions as the Basis of the Budget System]. Vestnik Samarskogo gosudarstvennogo ekonomicheskogo universiteta, (5)235, 62-74. (In Russian).

4. Prikaz i.o. Ministra nacional'noj ekonomiki Respubliki Kazahstan (2015). Ot 21 yanvarya 2015 goda № 34 «Ob utverzhdenii Metodiki prognozirovaniya postuplenij byudzheta» [On Approval of the Methodology for Budget Revenue Forecasting]. Әdіlet. Retrieved August 25, 2024, from https://adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/V1500010322 (In Russian).

5. Shcherbakov, K.A. (2024). Povyshenie nalogovogo potenciala regiona: puti i mekhanizmy [Increasing the Tax Potential of the Region: Paths and Mechanisms]. Innovacionnaya ekonomika: informaciya, analitika, prognozy, (4), 93-97. DOI: 10.47576/2949-1894.2024.4.4.011. (In Russian).

6. Zotikova, N.Z. (2024). Nalogovyj potencial municipal'nyh obrazovanij kak osnova regional'nyh byudzhetov [The Tax Potential of Municipal Entities as the Basis of Regional Budgets]. Vestnik universiteta, (7), 151–161. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26425/1816-4277-2024-7-151-161 (In Russian).

7. Phesa, M. (2024). Tax Knowledge and Tax Behaviour of Individual Taxpayers in South Africa: A Scoping Review. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 14, 299–316. DOI: 10.32479/ijefi.16149.

8. Minh Ha, N., Phuong Trang, T.T., & Vuong, P.M. (2022). Relationship between Tax Avoidance and Institutional Ownership over Business Cost of Debt. Cogent Economics & Finance, 10(1). DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2022.2026005.

9. Orlova, V.A. (2023). Strategiya upravleniya nalogovym potencialom regionov kak faktor obespecheniya ekonomicheskoj bezopasnosti [Strategy for Managing the Tax Potential of Regions as a Factor in Ensuring Economic Security]. Torgovlya i rynok, 4(68), 86–95. (In Russian).

10. Dzhurakhonzoda, B.D., & Barotov, A.Kh. (2023). Sravnitel'nyj analiz metodov opredeleniya i ocenki nalogovogo potenciala regiona [Comparative Analysis of Methods for Determining and Assessing the Tax Potential of the Region]. Ekonomika Tadzhikistana, (3), 188–195. (In Russian).

11. Batashov, R.V., Dashaev, Kh.S., & Israilov, K.M. (2023). Podhody k opredeleniyu nalogovogo potenciala [Approaches to Determining Tax Potential]. Ekonomika i biznes: teoriya i praktika, 11-1(105), 61–65. DOI: 10.24412/2411-0450-2023-11-1-61-65. (In Russian).

12. Bogdanov, G.G. (2024). Osobennosti formirovaniya nalogovogo potenciala Severo-Zapadnogo FO [Features of the Formation of the Tax Potential of the Northwest Federal District]. Vestnik evrazijskoj nauki, (3), 12. (In Russian).

13. Fazliev, T.A., & Mikhailova, L.V. (2022). Nalogovyj potencial regionov Rossii [Tax Potential of the Regions of Russia]. Obshchestvoznanie i social'naya psihologiya, 12-2(42), 424–428. (In Russian).

14. Kazbekova, Zh.B., & Kalmakova, D.T. (2016). Metody ocenki nalogovogo potenciala: preimushchestva i nedostatki [Methods for Assessing Tax Potential: Advantages and Disadvantages]. Vestnik KazNU. Seriya ekonomicheskaya, 2(114), 222–228. (In Russian).

15. Kalina, O.V., & Oskorkov, R.V. (2007). Nalogovyj potencial territorij: teoriya i metody ocenki [Tax Potential of Territories: Theory and Methods of Assessment]. Sankt-Peterburgskij gosudarstvennyj politekhnicheskij universitet, 213 pp. (In Russian).

16. Roschupkina, V.V. (2007). Sovershenstvovanie metodiki ocenki nalogovogo potenciala regiona [Improving the Methodology for Assessing the Tax Potential of the Region]. (Doctoral dissertation). Stavropol'. 197 pp. (In Russian).

17. Nalogi i platezhi Vostochno-Kazahstanskoj oblasti. (2024). Nalogi i platezhi Vostochno-Kazahstanskoj oblasti [Taxes and Payments of the East Kazakhstan Region]. Byuro nacional'noj statistiki Agentstva po strategicheskomu planirovaniyu i reformam Respubliki Kazahstan. Retrieved August 23, 2024, from https:// stat.gov.kz/ru/ (In Russian).

18. Nacionalnye scheta. Valovoj regionalnyj produkt. (2024). [National Accounts. Gross Regional Product]. Byuro nacionalnoj statistiki Agentstva po strategicheskomu planirovaniyu i reformam Respubliki Kazahstan. Retrieved August 23, 2024, from https://stat.gov.kz/ru/ (In Russian).