ANALYSIS OF REPRODUCTION PROCESSES OF THE POPULATION OF KAZAKHSTAN

The purpose of the study is to assess, based on the in-depth analysis, the current state and dynamics of the processes of reproduction of the population of Kazakhstan and its regions.

Research methodology. The methodological basis for this study was statistical methods: retrospective, current and prospective analysis, time series, index methods, comparison of open access statistical data characterizing population reproduction processes.

The official statistical information of the Bureau of National Statistics ASPiR of the Republic of Kazakhstan (BNS), presented on the official website, was used as a data source.

Originality (value) of the study. The main value of this study lies in the analysis of the mutual influence of changes in the age-sex structure and population reproduction processes based on forecast calculations.

Results of the study. Based on the analysis of the age-sex structure of the population, the main trends and mutual influence of “demographic waves” and indicators of reproduction of the population of Kazakhstan were identified, an analysis of changes in the main indicators of the number and age-sex structure, natural movement of the population was carried out based on forecast calculations.

1. Tokayev, K.-Z. (2023). Poslanie Glavy gosudarstva Kasym-Zhomarta Tokaeva narodu Kazahstana«Jekonomicheskij kurs Spravedlivogo Kazahstana». Astana. Retrieved March 2, 2024, from https://www.akorda.kz/ru/poslanie-glavy-gosudarstva-kasym-zhomarta-tokaeva-narodu-kazahstana-ekonomicheskiykurs-spravedlivogo-kazahstana-18588

2. Becker, G. S. (1981). A treatise on the family. Cambridge: Harvard University Press. https://www.nber.org/books-and-chapters/treatise-family

3. Becker, G. S., Murphy, K. M., & Tamura, R. (1990). Human capital, fertility, and economic growth.Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S12-S37. https://doi.org/10.1086/261723

4. Murphy, T. E. (2009). Old habits die hard (sometimes): What can département heterogeneity tell us aboutthe French fertility decline? IGIER Working Paper No. 364. Bocconi University. https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Tommy-Murphy/publication/46459948_Old_Habits_Die_Hard_Sometimes_Can_dACpartement_heterogeneity_tell_us_something_about_the_French_fertility_declinei/links/560ba5d708ae576ce64124f4/Old-Habits-Die-Hard-Sometimes-Can-dACpartement-heterogeneity-tell-us-something-about-the-Frenchfertility-declinei.pdf

5. Fernandez-Villaverde, J. (2001). Was Malthus right? Economic growth and population dynamics.Economic Growth and Population Dynamics. URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=293800

6. Mironin, S., & Kozyreva, O. (1999). Prichiny vtorogo demografi cheskogo perehoda. Zolotoj lev, (6364). URL: http://www.zlev.ru/

7. Doepke, M. (2005). Child mortality and fertility decline: Does the Barro-Becker model fi t the facts? Journal of Population Economics, 18(2), 337-366. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-004-0208-z

8. Galor, O., & Weil, D. N. (2000). Population, technology, and growth: From Malthusian stagnation tothe demographic transition and beyond. American Economic Review, 90(4), 806-828. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.90.4.806

9. Becker, G. S., & Lewis, H. G. (1973). On the interaction between the quantity and quality of children.Journal of Political Economy, 81(2), Part 2, S279-S288. https://doi.org/10.1086/260166

10. Rosenzweig, M. R., & Wolpin, K. I. (1980). Testing the quantity-quality fertility model: The use oftwins as a natural experiment. Econometrica, 48(1), 227-240. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912026

11. Hanushek, E. A. (1992). The trade-off between child quantity and quality. Journal of Political Economy, 100(1), 84-117. https://doi.org/10.1086/261808

12. Black, S. E., Devereux, P. J., & Salvanes, K. G. (2005). The more the merrier? The eff ect of family size and birth order on children's education. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 120(2), 669-700. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/120.2.669

13. Angrist, J., Lavy, V., & Schlosser, A. (2010). Multiple experiments for the causal link between thequantity and quality of children. Journal of Labor Economics, 28(4), 773-824. https://doi.org/10.1086/653830

14. Rosenzweig, M. R., & Zhang, J. (2009). Do population control policies induce more human capitalinvestment? Twins, birth weight, and China's “one-child” policy. The Review of Economic Studies, 76(3), 1149-1174. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-937X.2009.00563.x

15. Buro, Nacional'noj statistiki Agentstva po strategicheskomu planirovaniju i reformam RespublikiKazahstan. (n.d.). [Electronic resurs]. URL: https://stat.gov.kz

16. Shokamanov, Ju. K., Iskakov, U. M., & Mananov, B. B. (2023). Demografi cheskij perehod i ego vlijanie na chelovesheskoe i social'no-jekonomicheskoe razvitie. In Materialy kruglogo stola na temu: «Demografi cheskaja model' demografi cheskogo perehoda: vlijanie i vyzovy» (pp. 13-27). Almaty: Fortuna Poligraf.

17. Iskakov, U. M., Mananov, B. B., & Ruzieva, Je. A. (2023). Nekotorye voprosy analiza i prognozachislennosti naselenija v Kazahstane. In Materialy Mezhdunarodnoj nauchno-prakticheskoj konferencii «Mehanizmy ustojchivogo social'no-jekonomicheskogo razvitija strany s uchetom megatrendov i scenariev global'nogo razvitija», posvjashhennuju 70-letiju doktora jekonomicheskih nauk, professora Shokamanova Jurija Kamirovicha (pp. 1-436). AGJeU.