caerCentral Asian Economic ReviewCentral Asian Economic Review2789-43982789-4401Университет Нархозcaer-243Research ArticleЭКОНОМИКА УСТОЙЧИВОГО РАЗВИТИЯTHE ECONOMY OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ РОСТ И ПРИТОК ПРЯМЫХ ИНОСТРАННЫХ ИНВЕСТИЦИЙ (ИПИ): НАСКОЛЬКО РЕЛЕВАНТНЫ ПОКАЗАТЕЛИ ИХ СВЯЗИ В УСЛОВИЯХ ЭКОНОМИКИ КАЗАХСТАНА?ECONOMIC GROWTH AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) INFLOW: HOW RELEVANT ARE THE INDICATORS OF DEPENDENCE IN THE CASE OF KAZAKHSTAN?НаурызбаеваЖ. К.NauryzbayevaJ. K.

Наурызбаева Жанна Кимелевна, Докторант программы PhD

Алматы

Nauryzbayeva Joanna Kimelevna, PhD candidate, PhD Program

Almaty

Университет НархозКазахстанUniversity NarxozKazakhstan20182808201804150160Copyright © Наурызбаева Ж.К., 20182018Наурызбаева Ж.К.Nauryzbayeva J.K.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://caer.narxoz.kz/jour/article/view/243

Цель исследования – ответить на следующие исследовательские вопросы: (1) Какое знание о процессах и состоянии конкретной экономики дает факт наличия (отсутствия) связи между показателями притока ИПИ и динамики объемов ВВП? (2) Если позитивная корреляция между притоком ИПИ и ВВП существует, является ли этот факт позитивным событием для экономики конкретной страны, в особенности для реального сектора? И если да, то почему, и как это измерить и проверить в условиях Казахстана? (Аналогичный вопрос также может быть сформулирован касательно отрицательной корреляции).Методы исследования – Для решения задач исследования использовались статистический и графический методы, регрессионно - корреляционный анализ, общенаучные методы анализа и синтеза.Оригинальность/ценность – Казахстанская экономика испытывает значительный приток ИПИ на протяжении более десятка лет, но реальные результаты (эффекты) этого процесса пока недостаточно изучены. Автором рассматриваются эффекты притока ИПИ в экономику Казахстана с точки зрения их воздействия не только на показатели динамики ВВП, но также предпринимается попытка понять, какие еще показатели необходимо исследовать для составления реалистичной картины о роли ИПИ в экономике и, в первую очередь, в ее реальном секторе.Выводы – В результате исследования автор приходит к следующим заключениям: (1) В случае Казахстана гипотеза о наличии позитивной связи между притоком ИПИ и экономическим ростом не подтверждается; (2) Сам по себе показатель ВВП в случае малой сырьевой экономики Казахстана, где высокий объем притока ИПИ сопровождается высокими объемами вывоза дохода инвесторами, не информативен. Более адекватен для анализа в этом случае показатель ВНД, равный ВВП за минусом чистых факторных доходов, в которые включены, в том числе, доходы от ИПИ; (3) Методические подходы, основанные на анализе показателей динамики ВВП, могут быть признаны не релевантными для исследования проблемы воздействия ИПИ на экономику Казахстана; (4) Главным эффектом от притока ИПИ в течение 15 лет для реального сектора экономики Казахстана является рост выпуска сырой нефти, что подтверждается результатами корреляционно-регрессионного анализа.

Purpose of the study is to answer the following research questions: (1) what knowledge about the processes and the status of a particular economy gives the fact of the presence (absence) of dependence between the indicators of FDI inflow and the dynamics of GDP? (2) If there is a positive correlation between FDI inflow and GDP growth, is this a positive development for the economy of a particular country, especially for its real sector? And if so, how to measure and check it in the case of Kazakhstan? (A similar question can also be formulated regarding negative correlation.)Research methods – General scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, statistical and graphical methods, regression and correlation analysis have been applied.Novelty / value – Kazakhstan's economy has been experiencing a significant FDI inflow for more than a decade, but the real results (effects) of this process have not been sufficiently studied. The author considers the effects of FDI inflow into the economy of Kazakhstan in terms of their impact not only on GDP dynamics, but also attempts to understand what other indicators to be investigated to create a realistic picture of the role of FDI in the economy and, first of all, in its real sector.Conclusions – As a result of the study the author derives the following assumptions: (1) In the case of Kazakhstan the hypothesis of a positive correlation between FDI inflow and economic growth is not confirmed; (2) GDP itself is not informative in the case of the small commodity production - concentrated economy of Kazakhstan, where a high volume of FDI inflow is accompanied by high volumes of foreign investor`s income withdrawal. More adequate for the analysis in this case is GNI, which is equal to GDP minus net factor income (NFI), that includes income from FDI; (3) Methodological approaches based on the analysis of GDP dynamics may are considered not relevant for the study of the impact of FDI to the economy of Kazakhstan; (4) After 15 years of FDI inflow the main effect to the real sector of the economy of Kazakhstan is the growth of crude oil production, which is confirmed by the results of correlation and regression analysis.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.