caerCentral Asian Economic ReviewCentral Asian Economic Review2789-43982789-4401Университет Нархоз10.52821/2789-4401-2025-6-8-23caer-1668Research ArticleГЛОБАЛИЗАЦИЯ И ЦЕНТРАЛЬНАЯ АЗИЯGLOBALIZATION AND CENTRAL ASIAТорговые санкции и экономическая стабильность: данные из КазахстанаTrade sanctions and economic stability: data from Kazakhstanhttps://orcid.org/0000-0001-5411-0035ШокамановЮ. К.ShokamanovY. K.

Алматы

Shokamanov Yuriy K. – Doctor of Economy, Professor, Professor of the Department Accounting, Audit and Statistics.

Almaty

shokamanov53@mail.ruhttps://orcid.org/0000-0003-3793-1485БалгаринаЛ. А.BalgarinaL. A.

Алматы

Balgarina Lyudmila A. – Correspondent author, Doctoral student.

Astana

mila.balgarina@gmail.comhttps://orcid.org/0000-0002-1540-4919БаеваЮ. В.BayevaY. V.

Алматы

Bayeva Yuliya V. – Candidate of Sciences in Economics, Associate Professor.

Astana

bayevayv@my.msu.ruАлматинский гуманитарно-экономический университетКазахстанAlmaty Humanitarian-Economic UniversityKazakhstanАкадемия государственного управления при Президенте РККазахстанThe Academy of Public Administration under the President of the Republic of KazakhstanKazakhstanКазахстанский филиал Московского государственного университета им. М.В. ЛомоносоваКазахстанKazakh Branch of Lomonosov Moscow State UniversityKazakhstan20252602202606823Copyright © Шокаманов Ю.К., Балгарина Л.А., Баева Ю.В., 20262026Шокаманов Ю.К., Балгарина Л.А., Баева Ю.В.Shokamanov Y.K., Balgarina L.A., Bayeva Y.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://caer.narxoz.kz/jour/article/view/1668

рассмотреть, как санкции, введенные в отношении России, влияют на стабильность экономики Казахстана, с помощью разработанного интегрального индекса стабильности экономики.

Исследование основывается на совокупности методик расчета интегрального показателя стабильности экономики. Для анализа имеющихся научных разработок в сфере расчета интегральных показателей стабильности были применены методы сопоставления и сравнения. Предварительная обработка исходных данных включала в себя последовательное применение методов нормирования, а именно метода максимум/минимум, затем был проведен расчет интегральных показателей.

Оригинальность предлагаемого исследования заключается в разработке методологии расчета интегрального индекса стабильности с учетом 9 показателей. Полученный индекс стабильности помогает в изучении влияния глобальных экономических санкций, введенных в отношении России на стабильность экономики Казахстана. Это дает возможность понять и определить векторы дальнейшего развития Казахстана.

Результаты исследования показывают снижение основных макроэкономических показателей в Казахстане через год после введения санкций, что четко отражается как на общих, так и на отдельных показателях экономической стабильности. Дальнейший анализ показывает, что санкции против России приводят к структурным дисбалансам в экономике Казахстана, но также способствуют росту его экономики и стимулируют внешнюю торговлю. Эта статья дополняет существующие исследования о влиянии санкций на соседние с Россией страны. Рекомендуется проанализировать влияние антироссийских санкций на других членов ЕАЭС в будущем.

The primary objective of this study is to examine how the sanctions imposed against Russia affect the stability of Kazakhstan's economy using a developed integral index of economic stability.

The study is based on a set of methods for calculating an integral indicator of economic stability. To analyze the available scientific developments in this field, we applied the methods of comparison and analysis. The initial data were processed using consistent normalization methods, such as the maximum/minimum method. After that, integral indicators were calculated.

The results showed a decline in the main macroeconomic indicators in Kazakhstan the year after the imposition of sanctions, which is clearly reflected in both the overall and individual indices of economic stability. Further analysis reveals that the sanctions against Russia lead to structural imbalances in Kazakhstan's economy, but also benefit the growth of its economy and stimulate its foreign trade. This article contributes to existing research on the impact of sanctions on countries neighboring Russia. It is recommended to analyze the effect of anti-Russian sanctions on other members of the EAEU in the future.

The originality of this study lies in the development of a new methodology for calculating an integral stability index based on nine indicators. This stability index helps us to study the impact of global economic sanctions on Russia on the stability of the Kazakh economy. It allows us to better understand and determine the future direction of Kazakhstan's development.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.